Well guys you are correct that BD can not qualify for S-8s if India wins ...and but why SL would like to win match ...well if they loose then they will go to S-8s with 0 points and India will go with 2 points and if India looses that match then SL goes with 2 points in S-8s and BD also goes. Now whether its India or SL goes there in S-8s with 2 points then they are virtually in Semis they just have to defeat WI , Eng and Ireland ...and they will be Semis ...if we consider that they loose to SAF AUS and NZ ...hence this match b/w India and SL is vertual QF ...whoever wins it will make its Semis path very easy....and that's big inspiration to win ... what say....??
RE:why SL will like to win
by talk cool on Mar 22, 2007 04:57 AM Permalink
Good point Tilak.
See the opposite what we lose to Sri Lanka then Bangladesh is through to Super 8s. This means one more minnows in Super 8 (along with Ireland). This is not at all good news for Sponsorers as they lost India and also one-sided matchs in Super 8 also.
RE:RE:why SL will like to win
by Jitesh Krishnan on Mar 22, 2007 09:26 AM Permalink
you guys are discounting one thing though actually several..sehwag, tendulkar, dravid, yuvraj, dhoni, harbhajan..they should have the fire burning ..we'll win guys ..the sri lankans are not invincibles..
Srilanka showed how to deal with bangladesh putting their batting and bowling into place.Now its time for india to do things right and snatch a victory from srilanka.It would be a good win if we can pull that one but its going to be real difficult considering the form that lankans are in now
There were quite a few enquiries, so here's my stats :-)
This match SL vs BAN was reduced to 46 overs and the target for BAN was 311 after rain delay.
So in short: For (192 112)/(48.3 46) = 3.2237 (They were all out so full 46 overs counted)
Against: (191 311)/(50 46) = 5.2291
Hence (For - Against) = - 2.00541 (approx.)
What will it take for India to qualify/high level? All combos.
a.Bangladesh looses to Bermuda :-). In that case India losing to SL by a OK margin (25 to 30 runs) will also put us through. (Nothing shocking kuch bhi ho sakta hain bhai)
b. India defeats SL (a gap of over 20 runs will make it virtually impossible for Bang to qualify as they have to defeat Bermuda by a stunning 315 runs or get Berm out by 50 runs and score it in less than 3 overs)
In short, India should just concentrate winning the match as we all know; even a 1 run win will need Bangladesh to win by 270 runs against Bermuda...Aur agaar apna Bangladesh haar gaya bichara Bermudas se, toh bhi chalega. But we all know Super 8 mein kya haal hoga if our heros go loosing :-)
I like this forum; looks like many BPO guys are there as I see messages late US day hours. Cheers!
RE:Points Table
by kavneet bawa on Mar 22, 2007 03:47 AM Permalink
Aninda Bose............ India has to win againt srilanka........ even if bangladesh looses to Bermuda............ If we loose we will never make it...... cause then NRR won't come into picture....... 'cause Bangladesh has defeated india........ so fingers crossed......
RE:RE:Points Table
by Aninda Bose on Mar 22, 2007 04:02 AM Permalink
I see your point, makes absolute sense if that is the rule i.e. if there is a points tie between two teams in 2nd and 3rd, the outcome of their individual match will take precedence over the NRR.
Thanks for enlightening. Cheers!
P.S. A lady so glued in cricket is interesting though :-)
RE:RE:RE:Points Table
by vasu on Mar 22, 2007 04:16 AM Permalink
No thats not the rule. The NRR takes precedence. Here is the order to break a tie:
1. Team with the most wins 2. Team with the higher net run-rate 3. Team with the most wickets taken by balls bowled 4. Winner of the game between two level teams 5. Draw lots
RE:RE:RE:Points Table
by arvind dobhal on Mar 22, 2007 04:19 AM Permalink
But Bermuda also would have two points right? So.. Bangladesh defeated India-- 2 Points India defeated Bermuda -- 2 Points If Bermuda Defeats Bangaladesh -- 2 Points Again the NRR will come into picture.
RE:RE:RE:RE:Points Table
by vasu on Mar 22, 2007 04:21 AM Permalink
Good catch Arvind. In any case if two or more teams tie with the same number of points NRR is the first choice to break the tie. See the order I mentioned above.
RE:Points Table
by uday kumar on Mar 22, 2007 04:17 AM Permalink
bose u r really boss of stats mate.. good work. if our so called multimillionire cricketrs aware of this stats, they work on that. but after c ing todays sri's performance, india really really should well. now upto all big guns.
RE:Points Table
by suresh reddy on Mar 22, 2007 04:50 AM Permalink
I think bang should win by 370 not 270. India will go to super 8 1) india win or bangladesh loss
RE:Points Table
by o on Mar 22, 2007 04:38 AM Permalink
As per my math Assume india wins with very low NRR increase say .001. so they will be still at current NRR of 2.5..
Bangla can over take 2.5 NRR (from -2 to 2.5) only if they beat Bermuda by 550 runs if they bat first.
If they bat second it is not possible.. Even if they bowl Bermuda for zero runs. Max they can revive is to NRR of -0.2 if they bowl them out for zero.
RE:RE:Points Table
by o on Mar 22, 2007 05:18 AM Permalink
Current Bangla Stat For =304/94.5=3.2 Against =502/96.0=5.23 NRR=-2.01 If Bangla bat first and scores For=500/50.0 Against =60/50.0 Final Bangla stat For=804/144.5=5.6 &n bsp;Against =562/146.0=3.85 NRR=1.72 ; &nbs p; If Bangla bat second and score 10/1 10/50 Final Bangla stat 314/95.5= 3.3& nbsp; 512/146=3.51 NRR=-0 .21 &nbs p; &nb sp; India Current stat For=604/100.0=6.0 Against =347/98.5=3.52 NRR=2.52 If India scores For=200/50 Against =199/50 Final India stat For=804/150=5.4 Against =546/148.5=3.68 NRR=1.68
So if india wins with any margin.. It is definately impossible if Ban bats sencond and virtually impsossible (margin should be more than 430) if bats first
RE:RE:Points Table
by o on Mar 22, 2007 04:49 AM Permalink
Sorry I have an error here.. Even if India wins its NRR can go down. But in any scneario if they win it will not go down than 1.7. To cross 1.7 Bangla have to win by 430 runs and no chance if they bat second.
RE:Points Table
by vimal raj on Mar 22, 2007 03:35 AM Permalink
thanks for the info Bose.So an Indian victory could be doubly sweet as we can carry those 2 points to super8 and that puts us in agood position to reach semis as we will have one more easy match against Ireland:)
SL winning by a huge margin is a good news for india because now they don't have to worry about winning with a big margin against SL. They can focus on win alone now (however a big win won't hurt atall) Lets wish Indian tean best of luck so that they can beat SL (Which is not going to be easy).
This vistory, especially the margin is a great news for us. Now we just have to worry about beating Lanka, and not bother about run-rate.
Lanka on the contrary haven't helped them selvs by beating bangla by such a margin, cause this has enhanced our chances of making it in the next round, and thats not going to help lanka should they lose against us.
Also, now should we lose against lanka, we still have a glimer of hope, of making it into the next stage. If bangladeh gets beaten by Bermuda we are in. Chances of that are less than 25%, but then its a chance allright.
RE:Big margin victory today helps us more than lanka
by Gaurav Sharma on Mar 22, 2007 03:25 AM Permalink
It would be great if bermuda beats bangladesh.
RE:Big margin victory today helps us more than lanka
by shivakumar kumar on Mar 22, 2007 03:58 AM Permalink
NO, If B'desh lose to Bermuda and we lose to SL, then only INdia and B'desh would have the same record and on basis of head to head contest, B'desh would go through. NRR is only the next option. We need to beat SL, and its as simple as that. Its a virtual semi-finals match for us.
RE:RE:RE:Big margin victory today helps us more than lanka
by umamaheswara KV on Mar 22, 2007 05:08 AM Permalink
dude, then even bermuda joins the race.. having gained two points by defeating bangla... so relax.. only NRR comes into pic and we'll be thru unless we lose miserably to SL..
B'desh has lost by 198 runs to Srilanka which means all India has to do is beat Srilanka because B'desh practically cannot get a net run rate greater than India when it plays Bermuda. Look at the following calculations.
If India beats Srilanka, it's net run rate will be at least 2.507 (currently it is 2.507 and a win against Srilanka cannot result in a lower run rate) For Bangladesh to equal India's NRR(2.507), it will have to do more than pull a rabit out of it's hat. See the calculations below.
Since B'desh lost by 198 runs to Srilanka, it's NRR is -1.988('for' run rate of 3.10 (304 runs/98 overs) minus 'against' run rate of 5.090 (509 runs/100 overs)). There is no way they can bring up their NRR to 2.507. One of the two scenarios below for B'desh is a minimum, which are impossible.
If Bermuda bats first and gets all out for no score (yes, for zero), then the 'against' run rate for B'desh goes down 3.393 (509/150). Now their 'for' run rate needs to jump to 5.900 to get a NRR of at least 2.507 (same as India). To score 1 run, B'desh will take at least one ball. Now their 'for' rate will remain the same because the equation hasn't changed much, that is 305/98.1 (3.10)
In case of B'desh batting first, they will have to score 581 and hope to get Bermuda all out for 0 to get a NRR of 2.507 because the 'for' run rate will be 5.9 (885/150) and the 'against' run rate will be 3.393 (509/150)
RE:All India needs is to beat Srilanka to get to Super-8
by on Mar 22, 2007 03:20 AM Permalink
Your assumption that India's NRR cannot come down below 2.507 if they win, is not accurate.
According to my simple calculations, assuming that India wins by the narrowest of margins (like by 1 run or with 1 ball to spare), they'll end up with a NRR of 1.67. For Bangladesh to top this, their only chance is to bat first and win by a margin of at least 450 runs. If they bat second, they have no chance at all.
India only needs a simple win over SL. Throw out your calculators!
RE:All India needs is to beat Srilanka to get to Super-8
by on Mar 22, 2007 03:25 AM Permalink
I agree with your general tone that bangladesh needs to win by impossible proportions to beat indian net run rate. but i wanted to point out one minor correction in your calculation, if india beats sri lanka by just one run (regardless of how much india makes) india's net run rate will be 1.68 (yes, reduced from 2.508) . Thats all, I agree even 1.68 would be quite difficult to catch up to.
RE:All India needs is to beat Srilanka to get to Super-8
by Prabu Parthasarathy on Mar 22, 2007 03:26 AM Permalink
India's NRR won't stay at 2.5 once they play the third game (unless they win by 125 runs). You guys need to first think before you do your calculations.
However, it is true that ND has no chance in hell (if India win against SL) to now make it with their pitiful NRR.
RE:All India needs is to beat Srilanka to get to Super-8
by Veera Kumar on Mar 22, 2007 03:24 AM Permalink
Good analysis! Its something rediff must have put into their article.
Indians care a damn about the match and how it went. All we bother about is how the Lankan victory matters to us, and you given that info.
Call me the eternal optimist, but I think that losing to Bangladesh was a good thing for the Indian team. This was a wake-up call which was delivered at the right moment. India now needs to win against Sri Lanka (after today%u2019s beating against SL, Bangladesh will need to win against Bermuda probably by a margin of 400 runs) in order to qualify for the super8 stage. True, its a must-win situation, which could have been avoided if India had won against Bangladesh. On the positive side, it will bring out the do-or-die attitude in the team, and unless they succumb to the nerves (which I am hoping they won%u2019t), they should win this match and stay alive in the tournament. In the process they will carry crucial 2 points into the next stage by virtue of their win against SL, and bury the ghosts of the Bangladesh loss.
Just going into Super 8 we are struggling like this. Unbeleivable that we have fallen to this level. god knows what have Australians have in store for us if we do actually play against them in the next round ( assuming we go to supier 8, and this is a big assumption).
RE:Can't believe this
by sameer naik on Mar 22, 2007 03:28 AM Permalink
Also you never know what can happen.
We started similar way last world, there were strong reactions, gangulay went on to an extent of making a statement "who neede fans when one can huddle" ...sachin made a public statement asking all the fans to calm down and they will all do the best etc. Things were pathetic then too and we ended up making it into the final.
We all know waht pakistan were at one stage, down and almost out in 1991 worldcup but eventually they went and won the cup.
If you watched soccer world cup, if you had seen the way france started their campaign many pundits wondered whether they could score even a single goal in the tournanment..they were goalless till i guess 2 or league match. They eventually went upto the Final!
So how one fares initially is hardly any indication of waht is in store.
RE:RE:Can't believe this
by radhika kumari on Mar 22, 2007 03:56 AM Permalink
wow, a few days gap has changed the outlook and reactions of indians towards that forgettable loss to bangla and started to sound positive. were everyone waiting for SL to pull the crap out of bangla for everyone to change their views?
RE:RE:RE:Can't believe this
by sameer naik on Mar 22, 2007 04:17 AM Permalink
well as far as me the hopes i have are the same as what when we lost to bangla..
Plus india is used to such situations...do or die matches...to get to next stage..and more often than not we get through...go through the annals..
My only point is the way one starts initially doesn't really matter too much...if we los against bangladesh doesn't mean we are too bad... We scored 400 against Bermuda, Lankans scored much less...that doesn't mean we are better than lankans. right?
Coming back to your point...
This result today has certainly boosted india's chances, of making it into next stage, all those who think likewise understand the run-rates calculations etc well.
So nothing wrong if after this win indians seem more optimistic..
RE:Can't believe this
by shivakumar kumar on Mar 22, 2007 04:01 AM Permalink
Ahh! 1 lose and the ppl overreact!! Come on its all a part of game, just stick by your team no matter what. I dont need to remind you about how Pakistan sneaked into semi-finals in 1992 WC only to go on and win in the end! Look at the bright side will you and dont be so ready to crucify a team. If it hurts so much stop watching the game!
RE:Can't believe this
by vardhamshetty gautham on Mar 22, 2007 03:04 AM Permalink
no need to overreact so much......we lost to bangladesh doesnt mean we keep on loosing all the time
