Mr. Kondapalli's article prompted me to comment because it contains information about Chinese nuclear forces that is different from what the US intelligence community says. It has been wrong before, but the differences matter a great deal for the understanding of Chinese military capabilities. Here is what they say:
First, the JL-2 will not carry MIRV, but single warhead with penetration aids.
Second, China does not have 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles, but approximately 30 (20 DF-5A and less than 10 of both the DF-31 and DF-31A).
Third, it is far from clear yet that the Jin SSBNs will provide China with a "credible" second strike capability, as the JL-2 has not yet been test launched from a Jin and the Chinese Navy has no experience in operating SSBNs and only a very limited capability to communicate with them.
Fourth, the range of the JL-2 does not enable it to target the Continental United States from waters near China; sailing closer will be very risky in a crisis. JL-2 is a regional deterrence weapon.
Fifth, although China is building a lot of submarines it is not in a "build-up" of its submarine fleet, which has been cut in less than half since the mid-1980s and is projected to level out around 40 boats. Much like India, it is modernizing its fleet.
Sixth, other than for show-off, it is highly unlikely the Jin SSBNs will patrol in the Indian Ocean; they will probably stay close to home.
Hans M. Kristensen Federation of American Scientis
RE:About those Chinese military capabilities
by sesame on May 08, 2008 09:42 PM Permalink
I think the satellite pics were sourced from DigitalGlobe and not Google Earth as mentioned by Dr. K
RE:About those Chinese military capabilities
by Singha on May 09, 2008 09:24 AM Permalink
On account of its opaqueness, there is no clear understanding of chinese capabilities as well as intentions.
As you would know china invaded and occupied Tibet and East Turkistan. Chinese continue to assert their rights on these occupied lands.
china have a record contributing to irresponsible proliferation of weapons to pakistan, north korea and darfur regime.
I am sure you would have noted the delirious joy that chinese media, mouthpiece of chinese leadership expressed post Sept 11 attacks.
china's strategic concerns remains prevention of alliance between india, pakistan, afghanistan and america, australia and japan.
The strategic perspective of US government is different from yours. Though they dont talk much about it, there is commitment to cut china down to size.
Cutting china down to size will also contribute to global prosperity and peace.
