Mr. Kondapalli's article prompted me to comment because it contains information about Chinese nuclear forces that is different from what the US intelligence community says. It has been wrong before, but the differences matter a great deal for the understanding of Chinese military capabilities. Here is what they say:
First, the JL-2 will not carry MIRV, but single warhead with penetration aids.
Second, China does not have 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles, but approximately 30 (20 DF-5A and less than 10 of both the DF-31 and DF-31A).
Third, it is far from clear yet that the Jin SSBNs will provide China with a "credible" second strike capability, as the JL-2 has not yet been test launched from a Jin and the Chinese Navy has no experience in operating SSBNs and only a very limited capability to communicate with them.
Fourth, the range of the JL-2 does not enable it to target the Continental United States from waters near China; sailing closer will be very risky in a crisis. JL-2 is a regional deterrence weapon.
Fifth, although China is building a lot of submarines it is not in a "build-up" of its submarine fleet, which has been cut in less than half since the mid-1980s and is projected to level out around 40 boats. Much like India, it is modernizing its fleet.
Sixth, other than for show-off, it is highly unlikely the Jin SSBNs will patrol in the Indian Ocean; they will probably stay close to home.
Hans M. Kristensen Federation of American Scientis
