two aspects, the supply of uranium and the addition of new reactor capacity. At least within this time horizon, neither nuclear breeding reactors nor thorium reactors will play a significant role because of the long lead times for their development and market penetration. The analysis of data on uranium resources leads to the assessment that discovered reserves are not sufficient to guarantee the uranium supply for more than thirty years. Eleven countries have already exhausted their uranium reserves. In total, about 2.3 Mt of uranium have already been produced. At present only one country (Canada) is left having uranium deposits containing uranium with an ore grade of more than 1%, most of the remaining reserves in other countries have ore grades below 0.1% and two thirds of reserves have ore grades below 0.06%. This is important as the energy requirement for uranium mining is at best indirect proportional to the ore concentration and with concentrations below 0.01-0.02% the energy needed for uranium processing – over the whole fuel cycle – increases substantially. The proved reserves (=reasonably assured below 40 $/kgU extraction cost) and stocks will be exhausted within the next 30 years at current annual demand. Likewise, possible resources – which contain all estimated discovered resources with extraction costs of up to 130 $/kg – will be exhausted within 70 years. At present, of the current uranium demand of 67 kt/yr only 42 kt/yr are supplied by new p
At present, of the current uranium demand of 67 kt/yr only 42 kt/yr are supplied by new production, the rest of about 25 kt/yr is drawn from stockpiles which were accumulated before 1980. Since these stocks will be exhausted within the next 10 years, uranium production capacity must increase by at least some 50% in order to match future demand of current capacity. Recent problems and delays with important new mining projects (e.g. Cigar Lake in Canada) are causing doubts whether these extensions will be completed in time or can be realized at all?? In case only the proved reserves below 40 $/kt can be converted into production volumes, then even before 2020 supply problems are likely. If all estimated known resources up to 130 $/kgU extraction cost can be converted into production volumes, a shortage can at best be delayed until about 2050. This assessment is summarised in the following figure. Possible uranium production profiles in line with reported reserves and resources are shown together with the annual fuel demand of reactors. The reserve and resource data are taken from the Red Book of the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA 2006). The demand forecasts up to 2030 are based on the latest 2006 scenarios Uranium Resources and Nuclear Energy EWG-Paper No 1/06 Page 5 of 48 by the International Energy Agency, a “reference scenario” which represents the most likely development, and an “alternative policy scenario” which is based on policies to increase the share
RE:RE:RE:URANIUM SUPPLY IS MAIN CONCERN
by shankar aurade on Jul 10, 2008 01:38 PM Permalink
share of nuclear energy with the aim of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Figure: Past and projected uranium production. Forecasts are based on reasonably assured resources below 40 $/kgU (red area), below 130 $/kgU (orange area) and additionally including inferred resources. The black line shows the fuel demand of reactors currently operating together with the latest scenarios in the World Energy Outlook (WEO 2006) of the International Energy Agency
