At present, of the current uranium demand of 67 kt/yr only 42 kt/yr are supplied by new production, the rest of about 25 kt/yr is drawn from stockpiles which were accumulated before 1980. Since these stocks will be exhausted within the next 10 years, uranium production capacity must increase by at least some 50% in order to match future demand of current capacity. Recent problems and delays with important new mining projects (e.g. Cigar Lake in Canada) are causing doubts whether these extensions will be completed in time or can be realized at all?? In case only the proved reserves below 40 $/kt can be converted into production volumes, then even before 2020 supply problems are likely. If all estimated known resources up to 130 $/kgU extraction cost can be converted into production volumes, a shortage can at best be delayed until about 2050. This assessment is summarised in the following figure. Possible uranium production profiles in line with reported reserves and resources are shown together with the annual fuel demand of reactors. The reserve and resource data are taken from the Red Book of the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA 2006). The demand forecasts up to 2030 are based on the latest 2006 scenarios Uranium Resources and Nuclear Energy EWG-Paper No 1/06 Page 5 of 48 by the International Energy Agency, a “reference scenario” which represents the most likely development, and an “alternative policy scenario” which is based on policies to increase the share
