Here is the forecast. BJP - 145 seats. May become a landslide of 170 seats depending on how many votes BSP, Samajwadi Party, Muslim league take away from Congress. Starts with an advantage of atleast 70 safe seats. BJP has never lost around 40 of these seats in last 4 elections mainly in Udupi, Mangalore, Karwar region and places like Hubli, Mysore, Bangalore, Davanagere.
Congress:- 35 seats. None of leaders are safe. Siddaramaih will face a strong BJP candidate. May just scrape thru. Dharam Singh will have a fight of his life for survival against BJP in Gulbarga District. Mallikarjun Kharge seat dereserved. Looking for a safe seat somewhere. S.M.Krishna - Probably may contest in Bangalore and lose to BJP or contest in rural Mandya and have a fighting chance in a traingular fight with JD(S) and BJP.
JD(S) :- Best scenario 20 seats. Worst scenario. Complete wipeout.
Others:- Bangarappa's party may win few seats. But he will have a fight of his life against BJP's Ayanuru Manjunath who had defeated him in Lok Sabha election in 1998 and nearly in 2006.
BSP:- May win seats in single digits. But cause enough grief to congress that they may regret turning against Mayavathi.
RE:karnataka poll
by Thimme Gowda on Apr 05, 2008 05:36 AM Permalink
Good analysis, Let me say some thing. Actually BJP is very strong in Bellary, Raichur, Koppal, Gadag , Haveri, Belguam, Bagalkote, Bidar, Dharwad,Mangalore,Coorg,Udupi,UK districts and BJP can win 80% of the seats in those districts. Also BJP can win 50% of seats in Gulbarga,Davanagare, Shimoga, Tumkur, Durga, Kolar, Bangalore City, Mysore city districts. BJP is weak only in Hassan and Mandya districts but even in Hassan BJP can get at least win 2 seats and Mandya one seat. BJP is getting very good support from ST community in North Karnataka especially in Bellary, Durga, Raichur district. By looking at all possibilities BJP can get majority without any problem and still they should work hard to make sure victory.
RE:karnataka poll
by Madhan Raju on Apr 05, 2008 05:41 AM Permalink
You are right. In fact recently many prominent Nayak(ST) community leaders have joined BJP in Raichur, Koppala, Bellary district. This will boos t BJP and boil congress stupids blood.
RE:karnataka poll
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 05, 2008 07:23 AM Permalink
Here is the forecast. Congress - 145 seats. May become a landslide of 170 seats depending on how many votes BSP, Samajwadi Party, Muslim league take away from BJP. Starts with an advantage of atleast 70 safe seats. Congress has never lost around 40 of these seats in last 4 elections mainly in Udupi, Mangalore, Karwar region and places like Hubli, Mysore, Bangalore, Davanagere.
BJP:- 35 seats. None of leaders are safe. Siddaramaih will face a weak BJP candidate. Dharam Singh willnot have to have a fight at all for victory against BJP in Gulbarga Districtis sure. Mallikarjun Kharge seat is deserved. Need not have to look for a safe seat anywhere. S.M.Krishna - May contest anywhere he likes in Bangalore and win by landslide . JD(S) :- Best scenario 20 seats. Worst scenario. Complete wipeout.
Others:- Bangarappa's party may win few seats. But he will have a fight of his life against BJP's Ayanuru Manjunath who had defeated him in Lok Sabha election in 1998 and nearly in 2006.
BSP:- May win seats in single digits. But cause enough grief to congress that they may regret turning against Mayavathi.
RE:karnataka poll
by for education on Apr 05, 2008 08:23 AM Permalink
Looks like someone has hacked into Tathagata's account once again, and misrepresenting him!
