Good analysis, Let me say some thing. Actually BJP is very strong in Bellary, Raichur, Koppal, Gadag , Haveri, Belguam, Bagalkote, Bidar, Dharwad,Mangalore,Coorg,Udupi,UK districts and BJP can win 80% of the seats in those districts. Also BJP can win 50% of seats in Gulbarga,Davanagare, Shimoga, Tumkur, Durga, Kolar, Bangalore City, Mysore city districts. BJP is weak only in Hassan and Mandya districts but even in Hassan BJP can get at least win 2 seats and Mandya one seat. BJP is getting very good support from ST community in North Karnataka especially in Bellary, Durga, Raichur district. By looking at all possibilities BJP can get majority without any problem and still they should work hard to make sure victory.
