Modi has won the exit polls not necessarily the elections, which we need to wait till 23rd. Last year, they projected Samajwadi leading in UP. In 2004 Lok Sabha - they unanimously predicted BJP-NDA as winners. In both cases, they ended up with mud on their faces.The real problem with exit polls in India is that they over-report support to the ruling party. They can however provide indication where the momementum lies bit not capture the exact magnitude of this momementum. In UP they all indicated the momentum lay with BSP and against Samajwadi Party but could not project BSP as clear winners. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections, all polls indicated that the momentum was with UPA and against NDA but they could not envisage a UPA win. So it is with the Gujurat elections. There are 2 reasons for considering that Gujurat exit polls would be no different:1. 2002 Assembly elections because Godhra was an emotive issue, we saw record turnouts 64%. This year, there is no such emotive issue but we see turnover at similar levels or may actually exceed 2002 figures (once EC finalizes voting %). Usually above average voting % implies winds of change. This is bad news for Modi 2. Both NDTV & IBN provided caveats "fear factor" and over-reporting in favor of ruling party substantiated by huge % of sample no comments.
RE:Exit Polls: Off the Mark by the mile
by Vinal Gandhi on Dec 17, 2007 10:16 PM Permalink
Higher voter percentage always bodes well for BJP at least in Gujarat. Usually the middle class and the upper middle class do not bother to vote and they are the traditional vote banks of BJP. In 2002, they came out and voted in big numbers. Same story this time. So this is going to be good for BJP. Second, there was no fear factor in Gujarat and the caveat by NDTV and IBN was basically a tool for them to use if they are proved wrong.
RE:Exit Polls: Off the Mark by the mile
by VK AGRAWAL on Dec 17, 2007 10:42 PM Permalink
hello pop head, may i ask who the hell you are, why don't u disclose ur identity, anyway u must know that gujrat is not up and yes, exit polls are not reliable but for heavens sake, try to understand that in up , sonia, priyanka and rahul compaigned for their party, yet they got the lowest total in recorded history. gurat is a one man show, where people don't know who is the pm of india, narendra modi rules supreme and there is no one of his stature and personality. as far as if u wish to talk about postgodhra violence, i admit it was a failure of gujrat govt. to control but what happened post indira's assassination when thousands of sikhs will killed all over india, now a sikh is the primieminister of india who has never won an election in whole lifetime except rajya sabha nomination. relax, modi will be the next cm of gujrat whether u like or not. by the way, i am not a bjp supporter or a worker but it seems sonia, dr manmohan singh, rahul gandhi will eat a humble on 23rd dec. when results will be out. good wishes for ur ignorace, no offence.
RE:Exit Polls: Off the Mark by the mile
by Pop Head on Dec 17, 2007 11:29 PM Permalink
Agrawal. My identity. It is Pophead. My head is split open and my brains are jutting out. So as someone described, I am an empty shell. So have does my identity make a difference. Admire your spirit and confidence. If Modi wins, here's congratulating you in advance. Otherwise on the 23rd, please write in your own congratulation.
