Modi has won the exit polls not necessarily the elections, which we need to wait till 23rd. Last year, they projected Samajwadi leading in UP. In 2004 Lok Sabha - they unanimously predicted BJP-NDA as winners. In both cases, they ended up with mud on their faces.The real problem with exit polls in India is that they over-report support to the ruling party. They can however provide indication where the momementum lies bit not capture the exact magnitude of this momementum. In UP they all indicated the momentum lay with BSP and against Samajwadi Party but could not project BSP as clear winners. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections, all polls indicated that the momentum was with UPA and against NDA but they could not envisage a UPA win. So it is with the Gujurat elections. There are 2 reasons for considering that Gujurat exit polls would be no different:1. 2002 Assembly elections because Godhra was an emotive issue, we saw record turnouts 64%. This year, there is no such emotive issue but we see turnover at similar levels or may actually exceed 2002 figures (once EC finalizes voting %). Usually above average voting % implies winds of change. This is bad news for Modi 2. Both NDTV & IBN provided caveats "fear factor" and over-reporting in favor of ruling party substantiated by huge % of sample no comments.
