For all you guys, who dont want the Rupee to strengthen, just coz your IT/ITES industry will suffer, pls note the following:
1.) Generally a strong economy has strong currency & vice-versa. So, as India gets stronger the Indian Rupee will rise too,
2.) The USD is bound to fall against all currencies. In the coming years, it may fall by more than 50%. This is coz there are 'Fundamental' Changes going in the world economy. Its not 'business-as-usual'. Power is getting shifted from west-to-east. US is under unprecedented debt levels. Already more than 50% of world growth is coming from emerging BRIC economies.
3.) I have alrdy said numerous times, that its only a matter of time, before our IT industry goes on a decline. THis is coz, first-of-all, they arose just coz of the Rupee-USD arbitrage. Now with the Rupee rising (or conversely USD falling) & with growing Salary-levels in India, its not long before there will be a slump in IT industry,
5.) Slump in the Exports/IT industry will have little impact on the Indian economy, coz, unlike China, the Indian GDP comes mainly from domestic consumption, and not from Exports,
6.) Our IT industry has been a BIG failure in the domestic market, where foreign firms like IBM, Accenture etc have clinched billion-dollar deals from Indian companies. Its a shame that, they (indian IT) lost-out in their own-turf. Its also shows there stupidity by ignoring the huge/growing domestic market, with no currency-risk.
RE:Dollar will FALL
by rohan patnaik on Jul 30, 2007 12:13 AM Permalink
Fool most of the jobs come from these IT companies and Exports .. Loss of jobs mean less domestic consumption so poorer GDP .. Indian Economy is bright bcoz of corporate pumping money to the economy.. Once they find India expensive they are gonna say goodbye and it is dooms day again.. Because we do not have any industry stong enough to support this huge population...
RE:RE:Dollar will FALL
by lax on Jul 30, 2007 12:27 AM Permalink
Have u heard of the coming Retail revolution, Manufacturing revolution, 2nd agri-revolution led by corporates etc.
True, there will be a temporary pain when the IT industry goes under, but our IT industry is nothing but a 'sweat-shop' for the americans.
Are they (IT industry) doing any worthwhile patent-based research? Are they into product-development like Microsoft/Apple/IBM/HP/Sony etc? Are they into superconductors & chip development??
Fools like you have to understand that, unless our IT industry is into hi-tech work where they develop products in our own-right (ie under our name & not contract-work for americans), they will never come-of-age.
More than Narayan-murthies/Premjis etc, I admire Ambanis/TATAs/Birlas/Mittals, who will make india a true-global economy.
Ofcourse, IT industry did make its contribution to the Indian economy, but its days are now numbered, unless they go up the value-chain & become rivals of Microsoft/Intel/ Apple/HP/Sony/IBM and not work FOR them, as they are doing now.
RE:Dollar will FALL
by RajneeshChandraMohan Jain on Jul 30, 2007 12:28 AM Permalink
Europe and USA put together is less than half the population of India.
It is silly to think that only foreigners could come and give us jobs.
God pretty much created all humans with same Raw materials.
There is absolutely no reason why on What one man can do in one part of earth can't be done by another man in another part of earth.
Nature's law are same every where.
I lived in USA for 20 years .. Currently I have been living in India since 2002 ..
Percentage of stupid people in both the countries are about the same ...
Human Brain pretty much work the same whether they are an American or Indian.
RE:Dollar will FALL
by Confused on Jul 30, 2007 01:12 AM Permalink
dear rajaneesh, human brain may work same but what about the attitute and corrupt mind? most of the indian's have poor attitute and are more prone to corruption vis-a-vis americans.
RE:Dollar will FALL
by RajneeshChandraMohan Jain on Jul 30, 2007 01:34 AM Permalink
Whether they are Americans or Indians human mind considers the following 3 parameters before doing a corrupt activity.
1. Probability of getting Caught. 2. Potential reward for not getting caught. 3. Potential punishment for getting caught.
You don't see Americans doing petty corruption because potential reward is small in comparison to their income.
Once Indian GDP improves, you 'll see those petty corruptions vanish in India.
When it comes to big corruptions and Scandals like Enron Americans are no different from Indians.
Indian Jail Environment/Life is much more humane to Jail life in USA. That do discourages some crime in USA.
RE:Dollar will FALL
by Confused on Jul 30, 2007 01:49 AM Permalink
Thank you rajnesh for giving the good picture on the other side of the coin, but still i feel that the average american is more honest, the corruption not only in money matters but they are true in their relationships unlike indians who tells something and mean something and what to show something else...
RE:Dollar will FALL
by IKesh Singh on Jul 31, 2007 04:08 PM Permalink
Not Really. Indian IT's & BPO's will charge more for outsourcing as will other firms in the world, like in China & Spain. $ has depreciated there as well.
