For all you guys, who dont want the Rupee to strengthen, just coz your IT/ITES industry will suffer, pls note the following:
1.) Generally a strong economy has strong currency & vice-versa. So, as India gets stronger the Indian Rupee will rise too,
2.) The USD is bound to fall against all currencies. In the coming years, it may fall by more than 50%. This is coz there are 'Fundamental' Changes going in the world economy. Its not 'business-as-usual'. Power is getting shifted from west-to-east. US is under unprecedented debt levels. Already more than 50% of world growth is coming from emerging BRIC economies.
3.) I have alrdy said numerous times, that its only a matter of time, before our IT industry goes on a decline. THis is coz, first-of-all, they arose just coz of the Rupee-USD arbitrage. Now with the Rupee rising (or conversely USD falling) & with growing Salary-levels in India, its not long before there will be a slump in IT industry,
5.) Slump in the Exports/IT industry will have little impact on the Indian economy, coz, unlike China, the Indian GDP comes mainly from domestic consumption, and not from Exports,
6.) Our IT industry has been a BIG failure in the domestic market, where foreign firms like IBM, Accenture etc have clinched billion-dollar deals from Indian companies. Its a shame that, they (indian IT) lost-out in their own-turf. Its also shows there stupidity by ignoring the huge/growing domestic market, with no currency-risk.
