Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007 By Anil Chandra K
India has two objectives. First is to qualify for Super 8. Second is to carry points to Super 8. For that the ideal situation seems India beats Sri Lanka and both qualify for the Super 8. Statistically it is lot more complicated than that.
Bangladesh Vs Bermuda
We need to start with the last match of the group - Bangladesh Vs. Bermuda. When Bangladesh starts the match, it will have target victory margin for it to advance into Super 8. Such target victory margin should help Bangladesh have a clear perspective of what to do to land the second position in NRR. If at that point, India is first and SL is second, India & Bangladesh will advance to the Super 8, with India not carrying any points. Alternatively if India is second and SL is first, SL & Bangladesh will advance (after Bangladesh achieves its victory margin target in the final match) with India left high and dry. So, India should top the table with SL next in NRR before Bangladesh match with Bermuda starts. In addition to this, if India%u2019s NRR is far higher than that of SL, it will be easier for Bangladesh to reach SL%u2019s NRR.
In order to achieve this, the following must happen.
Bangladesh Vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka should beat Bangladesh. But NOT with a big margin.
If Bangladesh wins, it will be Bangladesh and (India or Sri Lanka) in the super 8. And even if India reaches super 8, it will not carry any points from group matches.
So, it is important from India%u2019s point of view (semi final chances), Sri Lanka should beat Bangladesh.
But victory margin should not be high. It should be a close match. If it is not a close match, Sri Lanka%u2019s NRR will be higher than that of India, which means that India should beat Sri Lanka with higher margin to reach Super 8. This will put heavy pressure on India.
It is possible that we get target victory margin over Sri Lanka of 200 . It will make impossible for India to reach Super 8. (Forget about carrying points)
In other words, India%u2019s chances of reaching super 8 will be determined in THIS match. Not India Vs Sri Lanka match.
India Vs Sri Lanka
%u201CIndia should beat Sri Lanka.%u201D All calculations are based on assumption that India beats Sri Lanka. If not, forget you ever read this. Before going into this match, target victory margin for India will be available. This value depends on Sri Lanka Vs Bangladesh match. It is also possible that victory margin does not matter. (India already has better run rate than Sri Lanka) It is very important for India%u2019s semi final chances that India beat Sri Lanka with least victory margin but higher than the target victory margin. After Sri Lanka match, India%u2019s NRR must be higher than that of Sri Lanka, but not very high.
If Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh with Big Margin what could go wrong for India?
Sri Lanka will have better NRR than India, which could mean that Sri Lanka and Bangladesh could go to Super 8 as Bangladesh knows exactly what it needs to surpass India%u2019s NRR.
In order to stop this, India must beat Sri Lanka with huge margin.
But if Sri Lanka and Bangladesh match is close, India has chance of having better NRR than Sri Lanka after win over Sri Lanka.
Conclusion Sri Lanka must beat Bangladesh but it should be a close game. India must beat Sri Lanka with just enough margin to be #1 in NRR. Hope that Bangladesh%u2019s victory margin over Bermuda is not high enough for it to reach super 8.
RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by on Mar 20, 2007 09:33 PM Permalink
I must say thats a very good analysis with semi finals in mind ...Till now I was thinking of BD must win against SL that way NRR will be out of question for India and India only needs to win against SL but not anymore .. Thanks for your analysis..
RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by jigar desai on Mar 20, 2007 07:44 PM Permalink
dont think too much and dont go to that much of statastic becasue one thing is clear nor the indian team or bcci or anyone cares abt the margine and all they must be looking at staright win who cares if we dont reach there weather to carry point or not so just think of win and we will be there
RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by Manu on Mar 20, 2007 05:53 PM Permalink
India will go through.........I think the ICC will have a quiet chat with the umpires to favour India. The World Cup will be a disaster if India go out now.
RE:RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by Sayandeep on Mar 20, 2007 06:05 PM Permalink
you may be right...i wont be surprised if ICC does that...coz losing a billion ppl in viewership will hurt the sponsors...and who else watches cricket other than we indians
