The 1st Phase polling of Karnataka Elections have been completed. There were two exit polls - the first by NDTV and other by Cfore-Kannada Prabha-Survana TV. Both predicted diametrically opposite results.
Exit polls are only effective as statistical revelations: What they reveal is suggestive and what they conceal is vital!
NDTV headlines put smiles back on the faces of BJP supporters for Bangalore
Vote Swing -4% Congress 4% BJP 0% JD(S)
What they concealed were the numbers that mattered:
Vote Share 40% Congress 35% BJP 18% JD(S)
A cursory look at the second set of numbers would immediately wipe the smiles off the faces of BJP and their supporters. A 5% vote share difference implies that it is more or less a statical deadheat. Seats can be won or lost on margins as low as 500 votes. NDTV projections just gave the BJP the benefit that coin will fall in their favor. It could be very well be the other way around.
Cfore looks more accurate. While it gave Congress more seats - 39-41 for 1st Phase, it managed to capture the churn in Bangalore - massive 11% swing in BJP favor - BJP-Cong 42% each in Bangalore. Congress and BJP spilt Bangalore 13-14 seats each.
2004 party positions for Phase II were 33 BJP; 20 Congress, 11 JDS.
If 2008 results - Congress 25 BJP 33 JDS 4, this will be a good result as 40 seats (Phase1) and 25 seats (Phase II) will catapult Congress to overall 65 seats (2004) with still one Phase to go
