There are too many ifs and buts in the Senoy-Article that makes the analysis to be close to amusing. Mr. Senoy is perhaps ignorant about the financial support that the government of the day has been paying out to the Banking System, in all these years to implement its (including the period of BJP) Agriculture Policies. And the Rs. 60,000 Crore includes the bad debts that has already been written off by banks due to stricter reporting policy which has been introduced about 3 to 4 years back. For that the Government had made a hefty contribution then.
And, the actual hand-out from the Government will thus only to be too minimal to make any dent on the economy.
And if it so, the whole analysis is nothing but a bad hypothesis.
And when the FM and PM are telling that they have their home-work done properly, we have to believe them.
RE:Hypothesis
by sri on Mar 18, 2008 11:46 PM Permalink
I dont really see much clarity in your objections but Shenoy's is an interesting analysis, unlike the usual journalistic half-witted comments we normally see in Indian news outlets.
And why should we believe the FM and PM about having done their homework?
RE:Hypothesis
by Visitor on Mar 19, 2008 09:04 AM Permalink
If you cannot trust this PM & FM to have done their homework......you got trust issues man !!! :P:P
RE:Hypothesis
by All Right on Mar 19, 2008 09:22 AM Permalink
As if the entire parliament has been running smoothly since inception and every politician knows what s/he is doing.
RE:Hypothesis
by Lalatendu Deo on Mar 19, 2008 03:22 PM Permalink
My point, Sri, is that the Rs. 60,000 Crore is such a big amount that unless it is fully provisioned for, it would threaten the entire economy !!! It is more than the entire budget of 3 big States, taken together. And the Waiver has been a well thought out announcement by the FM and is not just a half-backed one.
We must go into the details of the Waiver Clauses and the earlier budgets of this government, before making any analysis. A lot of these money has already been written off from the books of account of the Banks due to the Change in reporting of Bad Debts that the RBI had dictated some 4 years back. The Banks were earlier showing these amount as assets in their Account Book. A part of it was the Debts of Farmers. You may recall, several small Banks went into Red immediately afterwards and the Government had paid a hefty amount to put them on track. And a part of this bad debt is being included in the waiver.
If we take out the Bad Debt, which in any way had already been written off, the net amount is quite manageable by the government.
And an analysis that ignores this fact, would never be a complete one. If the Government is to dole out such a huge amount, our entire economy will break down for sure.
So the hypothesis that analyzes as to what would happen if such a huge outlay is committed for a seemingly unproductive work, does not make any sense.
RE:Hypothesis
by All Right on Mar 19, 2008 06:12 AM Permalink
Why is the whole analysis a bad hypothesis?
If you read the article carefully, the 60,000 Cr. Farmer package is not even an issue at stake. The author is arguing about how Congress has set an election trap for the Left. The trap is set around the Nuclear Deal, not the Farmer package. IF the left withdraw their support because of the nuclear deal being inked, THEN Congress will play their Farmer card. Whether or not it would have created any dent in the economy is not even a point of discussion then.
Mr. All Right, I fully agree that the Congress has announced this to woo farmers that constitute directly or indirectly 70% of the entire population. But they have not targeted the Left. The Left would be non existant any more, anyway. Definitely, this waiver, once workedout fully, will go down well with these poor people, who actually VOTE.
And this Waiver Scheme has been worked out very carefully in all these years so that the impact would not be much on the economy.
There will surely be expectations in the non-farm poors that one day this government would elevate their condition as well. And that would surely be many more Crore Votes.
It is the 60 Crore VOTEs that count, and not the Nuclear Issue or anything else.
RE:Hypothesis
by peter pan on Mar 21, 2008 09:39 AM Permalink
We need to do much more than just Rs 60000 crores. It is a huge amount but is not enough to make much of an effect on the plight of the poor debt-ridden farmers. And 70% of our nation still depends on agriculture for livelihood. A lot needs to be done in the direction of reducing the economic disparity that exists in our nation if we are to reach anywhere near we intend to.
