It has nothing to do with the domestic politics or horse trading as it is made out to be!
The US administration cant afford to lose the nuclear deal.
CIA is already at work in influencing the MPs and warned the BJP not to push too aggressively against the vote; if the BJP do not listen, the CIA knows pretty too well which of the MPs can be bought and vote in favour of the UPA.
Tomorrow if the contest appears too narrow for prediction dont get surprised if you notice some surprises.