The survey showed what we Kannadigas knew all along. While it succeeded in establishing the trend - Congress coasting to victory, it failed to grasp the scale.
The BJP has termed Karnataka Assembly polls as their Gateway to South India. It will turn out to be the Graveyard and with that, whole of South India will be purified from the evil force - BJP
RE:BJP can be reduced to a Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 01:45 PM Permalink
The Deccan-Herald pre-poll survey that BJP is not only a Lingayat party but that too confined to Mumbai-Karnataka region, where they are expected to sweep. This is the region where Lingayats concentrate in high numbers.
The Congress is main challenger to the BJP in this region. Consequently if all non-Lingayats in that region consolidate their voting around Congress than BJP will be practically wiped out from Karnataka competing with minor parties like SP, JD(U), BSP for third place.
RE:RE:BJP can be reduced to a Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 01:46 PM Permalink
Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:RE:RE:BJP can be reduced to a Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 01:46 PM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
