by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:11 PM | Hide replies
Hi all!
It is quite interesting to read forum postings here. Non-Kannadigas and Non-state citizens of India do not understand the caste equations and ground realities of Karnataka. Here are my observations, who is a resident of Karnataka and who has voted more than 25 times (including all types of elections):
1. It seems that BJP is in a terrible hurry to grab power in Karnataka. It also seems that they do not have the kind of edge they had late last and early part of this year.
2. The perceived sympathy wave seems for the BJP to be on the wane and is fast disappearing.
3. The general perception that a particular caste of community will vote for a particular party (read Lingayat and BJP argument). In any given situations, no caste will vote en masse for a particular party. There will be at least 20-25% of vote that may go against a party.
4. This is special time for Karavali or coastal belt of Karnataka. Modi could draw just 5000 people in places like Udupi, Puttur and Karkala which have been the fort like bases for BJP. Rebels like Shakuntala Shetty have damaged the prospects of BJP to a large extent. In a district like Uttara Kannada, BJP has given tickets to many people who are new to the party. In fact, the local MP Ananta Hedge has already started working against his own party!
RE:BJP's True Colors
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:23 PM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:11 PM | Hide replies
Hi all!
It is quite interesting to read forum postings here. Non-Kannadigas and Non-state citizens of India do not understand the caste equations and ground realities of Karnataka. Here are my observations, who is a resident of Karnataka and who has voted more than 25 times (including all types of elections):
1. It seems that BJP is in a terrible hurry to grab power in Karnataka. It also seems that they do not have the kind of edge they had late last and early part of this year.
2. The perceived sympathy wave seems for the BJP to be on the wane and is fast disappearing.
3. The general perception that a particular caste of community will vote for a particular party (read Lingayat and BJP argument). In any given situations, no caste will vote en masse for a particular party. There will be at least 20-25% of vote that may go against a party.
4. This is special time for Karavali or coastal belt of Karnataka. Modi could draw just 5000 people in places like Udupi, Puttur and Karkala which have been the fort like bases for BJP. Rebels like Shakuntala Shetty have damaged the prospects of BJP to a large extent. In a district like Uttara Kannada, BJP has given tickets to many people who are new to the party. In fact, the local MP Ananta Hedge has already started working against his own party!
RE:RE:BJP's True Colors
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:24 PM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:13 PM | 6. The anger of Brahmins against in many parts of the state is another variable that may work against BJP. Overall, BJP has given just 7 tickets to chaste Brahmins this time. There is a silent anger brewing against BJP for not awarding enough number of tickets to this community. This is true in the districts of Shimoga and Uttara Kannada where Brahmins have been voting BJP all these years. Though Brahmins can't decide the results per se, a negative swing of around 15% may work against BJP.
7. The controversial mining lobby seems to be another important factor that may play a negative role in the parts of Bellary and Chitradurga. It is a well-known fact that the last coalition govt feel on its back just because of mining and real estate. Though BJP may now cry that Gowdas denied Yeddi the CM seat, the real problem was cause by the Reddy clan of Bellary. When J.Reddy alleged that Kumarasway took 150 crore bribes from mining lobby, the govt started crumbling immediately on the same day. Even during the power handing over controversy, the issue of mining and urban development ministries appeared very significantly. Now, people know why both of them wanted the same ministry (during the 20 months rule of coalition, almost 25,000 acres of land was allotted to non-agricultural purposes. All these issues and incidents are still in the memory enlightened voters across the vast land of Karnataka
