Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:BJP can be Reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:41 PM Permalink
y srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
RE:BJP can be Reduced to Single Digit
by anti sycophant on May 01, 2008 09:20 AM Permalink
cnn ibn,ndtv,times now all were wrong, "rather manipulated" pre-poll,post poll surveys during himachal,gujarat, meghalaya,punjab, nagaland.wat happened after that is everybodys knowledge. bjp formed govt. in all states n congies bite dust.
