Looks like hung assembly even this time around. Caste wil play a mjor role this time as Lingayats are behind BJP like never before. Below are description of how each caste vote for which party. Read it like this Caste_name(% of Karnataka population), Vote share
Lingayats(17%) - BJP(>90% supporting) Vokkaligas(11%) - JDS (>60%), cong(25%), BJP(15%) Kurubas (9%) - Cong(>75%), BJP(25%) Minorities(14%) - Cong(>75%), JDS(25%) SC/STs - In North K'ntaka votes will split b/n BJP, JDS and Cong, while in South they are more likely to vote overwhelmingly for cong. Brahmin (3%) - BJP(>95%), Cong(5%) OBC's - again here different castes will vote for different parties. Nayakas vote will spilt b/n JDS and cong while BJP may get wuite a share of it. Vishwakarmas will vote for Cong. OBC's in Coastal regions may split their vote b/n BJP and Cong.Bangarappa's Samajvadi party is quiet strong and can manipulate results of few constituencies in Shimoga and coastal districts.
RE:Caste wise vote share
by rama on Apr 09, 2008 12:27 PM Permalink
sudhir..u r speaking sense at least unlike others here !!! but u have made some mistakes--like lingayat population is 20% not 17 and vokkaliga is 13 %....st's are very much in favour of bjp wheras sc's will be backing cong/bsp.. and also vokkaliga vote b like 45% for jds 30% for bjp and 25% for cong
RE:Caste wise vote share
by ravishankar on Apr 09, 2008 12:26 PM Permalink
According to me the result could be like this, This is 100% guarantee. Don't belive write it in bond paper. Seats vote share Cong(I) 75-80 33-35% BJP 75-80 28-30% JD(S) 30-35 16-18% OTHERS 20-25 14-17%
