In early 2005, a joint security assessment by the CIA and the U.S. National Intelligence Council predicted Pakistan would become "a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation" by 2015.
Following Bhutto's death in Rawalpindi on Thursday, some experts believe the timeframe on that assessment may now have been brought forward, with political upheaval pitching Pakistan, a nuclear-armed power since 1998, towards breakdown.
Given that Musharraf, an important U.S. ally in the battle against militants, also has to juggle the fact that elements of his military have sympathy with the Taliban and al Qaeda, the possibility of nuclear security being compromised exists.
More probable is that nuclear material, such as small quantities of radioactive uranium, would be passed on, allowing groups such as al Qaeda to develop so-called "dirty bombs".
Al Qaeda's desire to get hold of such weapons is long held -- Gohel says the group has had a Weapons of Mass Destruction committee for several years, with most members still at large.
