we(MA politics students)of delhi university had done an exit poll on 19th in 23 selected constituencies of himachal pradesh.the constituencies were selected in a such manner that it speaks for the entire state.total sampling number was about 7000 persons(fairly high for a state like himachal and each and every community were represented fairly)..The results were incredible:: even though people respect Virabhadra Singh as the most popular candidate for Chief Minister there exists a tremondous Anti-Incumbency wave in favour of BJP. Virabhadra Singh--33% Dhumal--23% Shanta Kumar--20% Vidya Stokes--07% Mantokia--05% were the popularity of leaders... the votes that will be fetched by different parties are:: BJP--44% INC--38% BSP--09% were the votes fetched by prominent parties...It seems that almost the entire Dalit community is moving from Congress towards the BSP..If what we found is true then it is goin 2 b bad days 4 Virabhadra and his party as BSP factor will indirectly only help the BJP???now i will give an estimate of seats predictes:: BJP--42-48 INC--15--20 BSP--3-5 OTHER-1-3
RE:himachal polls
by sunita menon on Dec 21, 2007 08:04 PM Permalink
ur exit poll may be a gud exercise. But astrological analysis says that BJP will gain 22 to 28% more seats in Himachal.
RE:himachal polls
by narayan on Dec 19, 2007 05:47 PM Permalink
dont talk without knowin the facts???we conducted a survey and i told wht we fopund out...just c any himachal newspapers like TRIBUNE 2 find out the facts from himachal...iam not respnsible if bsp wins seats in himachal!!!and iam not a fan of mayawati brand of politics...but these r the facts and if u dont want 2 believe then wait till dec 26th..iam not tellin that bsp is goin 2 win majority in himachal ok???and 4 ur kind info bsp won 17 seats in delhi municipal election destroyin the votebank of congress and won 7 serats in uttarakhand again makin congress the loser...these above 2 states were not the traditional bastions of bsp????if u r a congress supporter then i would like 2 warn u dear friendthat wherever bsp is on upswing the first casualty will b congtress bcoz their votebank is almost the same!!!
RE:RE:himachal polls
by narayan on Dec 19, 2007 05:52 PM Permalink
the fact is that bsp has won 17 seats in delhi municipal corporation therby destroyin congress and similarily winnin 7 seats in uttarakhand again makin the loser--congress..it seems that this is gettin repeated in himachal also
RE:himachal polls
by Pop Head on Dec 19, 2007 07:22 PM Permalink
Narayan. The ECc reported that voting % was only 25-30%. So how did you guys statistically factor this. How come you announce your results before the polls closed? Usually voting pattern changes 3-5 pm. Usually BJP voters come out in the morning itself.
RE:himachal polls
by narayan on Dec 19, 2007 05:50 PM Permalink
iam not responsible if bsp is gainin grounds in northern india lost ny congress....just c any himachal newspapers if u want any info??
