Exit polls are always almost wrong because they are never taken in an unbiased way and at the same time the lot size is too small. They will interview perhaps 200 people and based on their response, they will predict the seats. How can such a small sample size be sufficient for a population of our size? The same thing holds true for most opinion polls. Besides, almost all the channels and newspapers have their likes and dislikes, their favorites and so on. So they will project the ones they favor as fronttunners. If they cannot do it because the voting is overwhelmingly on the opoosite side, they will try to undermine the victory percentage! Most of these Exit Polls are undertaken in a haphazard and unscientific manner and hence are bound to fail. As far as BJP's (I should say Modi's) victory margins are concerned (Yes. It is a proven fact that inspite of such a united and ferocious opposition,BJP is returning to power), I sense that Modi will at least maintain 127 seats. There are various reasons behind this. One, the voting percentage have been high and that has always favored BJP. Second, women have come out in a big way for voting and many have been openly favoring BJP. Third, after the first phase of elections where most of the dissidents were standing, these dissidents have become totally silent. None of them was to be seen after first phase, there is not a word they have spoken which means they know they have been defeated. For Modi, returning to power was not sufficie
RE:Exit polls are wrong because they are biased!
by mukul patwardhan on Dec 17, 2007 09:45 PM Permalink
that is why they always give an likely error percent.
If you dont believe in Sampling, then the next time you go to Pathology lab to test ur blood, tell the technician that sampling has errors and give your entire blood.
