When we look back, aftermath of indian nuclear tests in late 90s, Mr. Chidambaran, rodirguez were denied VISA to USA in their capacity as a chairman of an nuclear group. They were treated as if criminals, theives. Now the time has changed the US attitude that they are inviting Kakodkar to US. Good sign.
Do we need more nuclea arsenal? Isn't the one we have is enough and act as a deterrent? Any views?
RE:Looking back
by Ramesh Nittoor on Apr 20, 2007 04:18 PM Permalink
It is the internal matter of India to decide on the nature and size of its credible minimum deterrence. The matter of arsenal, as per original agreement is not within scope of the agreement. Period.
RE:RE:Looking back
by Ramesh Nittoor on Apr 20, 2007 04:23 PM Permalink
Further, it got to be realised that the nature and size of CMD is a function of assessment of threats and India providing a credible response to it. Consequently it is likely that the democratic decision-making in India would factor in the quality and assumptions behind US response to this 123 deal.
RE:Looking back
by Biswajit Ghoshal on Apr 20, 2007 03:37 PM Permalink
Dear Hari - we are talking about nuclear fuel (whereby nuclear energy is converted into electrical engergy and distributed for civil purposes), not nuclear bomb/arsenal. Pls read the article in full.
RE:Looking back
by harifromchennai on Apr 20, 2007 03:40 PM Permalink
Yes Biswajit. I saw that. India is reluctant to sign 123 agreement due to two reasons. The spent fuel cannot be allowed to reprocess (which will be in turn used for nuclear bomb) and another nuclear test by India will make USA walk out. That is why I am asking, is the current arsenal not enough as a deterrent? and Why India is not signing the 123 agreement?
India being one of the pillars of the world (other being USA, EU, and China) should go in for independent defense and energy policies just like all of these to maintain the balance of power in the world.
After all India is responsible for security and happiness of 1/6th of the humanity !
RE:RE:RE:Looking back
by harifromchennai on Apr 20, 2007 04:00 PM Permalink
Paradise, With the national sentiment, I too feel that India should walk out of the deal and choose independent path in the world and should not be blackmailed by US on anything.
However, the question remains to be answered are
1. Does India self sufficient in nuclear, interms of fuel, advanced technology? 2. Do we have enough hydrocarbons for our energy needs? 3. We have china/pakistan/bangladesh as our great neighbour, who ensures the GAS does not comes from Iran and burma? 4. What is the alternative to hydrocarbons or nuclear in case if we do not have agreement with the foriegn countries?
1. India is self sufficient in building small nuclear reactors BUT NOT supply of uranium. FBR reactors technology which uses thorium is still 20 years ago in commercial production, hence 20 year crucial gap when India's population would have increased even further. Unfortunatley, without USA you dont get Nuclear supplier group's consent to supply uranium. Thorium tech is 20 years away, so catch - 22. Alternative ignore nuclear tech for 20 years and develop thorium commercialization asap. 2. No we dont. 70% of Oil is imported. But we do have gas reserves and that can be used to generate electricity and run buses too like CNG. 3. Gas thru Iran will have to pass thru Pakistan or sea, 2nd is the better option. 4. Solar, wind, and thermal (coal), etc.
RE:Looking back
by harifromchennai on Apr 20, 2007 05:04 PM Permalink
Paradise, Appreciate for your time and response. 1. Well. FBR reactors are still 20 years away and India has huge reserves of thorium. Would it be a best option of putting this FBR not under the purview of IAEA (India has already segregated these FBRs in the initial MoU itself with US) and keep doing R&D while we sign 123 agreement tactically timebeing. Once we are self reliant in the FBR, we can make out our decision and can even come out of the deal on our own. We appease US for timebeing countering China. What do you say? Need to be crooked some times right?
To answer your question lets ask ourselves the question - DO WE NEED TO CONDUCT MORE NUCLEAR TESTS IN THE FORTHCOMING 20 YEARS OR NOT ?
20 years is a long time and by that time China would have leapfrogged in nuclear weapons delivery and arsenal (Even today it is ahead by roughly 4 times).
Only our defense scientists can answer IF we can go ahead with supercomputer stimulation of nuclear tests or we need to have REAL TESTS.
Once sign the deal, and invest billions of dollar on uranium based ractors, you would'nt want sudden stoppage of uranium supplies or spares etc.
RE:[object]
by harifromchennai on Apr 20, 2007 05:19 PM Permalink
Paradise, I personally think nobody in this world has to courage to do one more nuclear test other than some rogue countries such as Iran, Isreal, N.Korea. Not even US I guess. However the best option would be as you said supercomputer simulation of nuclear tests. I guess only US and Russia has the simulation capability till date.
Regarding the investment of billions of dollars, why US is hell bent on nuclear deal than India? Apart from ensuring India's backdoor entry on NPT and CTBT it is Business. Business should be Win-Win situation. India should be clever enough to achieve that. If you pull, you also loose.
Nuclear is a very clean energy source as you can see France derives 70%, and other EU countries, Japan and USA also derive major share of energy from nuclear, I agree same should be done here too.
But like I said #1 priority since we are responsible for security of 1/6th of humanity, is defense! If we can do with supercomputer stimulation of nuclear explosions, well and good.
I think way back in 1998 India claimed it doesn't need to carry out any more tests just after 5 tests, plus 1 test was in 1974, and it will do computer stimulations.
RE:Looking back
by harifromchennai on Apr 20, 2007 05:32 PM Permalink
Yes you are right. Nuclear scientists were upbeat in claiming that we are self sufficient and do not need one more series of tests. What is alarming here to be seen is that India is losing out in recent times in the race of supercomputer capability in the world right now. Do we have the right equipment, software to do any kind of simulation? Will the simulation help india in real times? This needs to be answered by the scientific fraternity. China is very careful in closing India's all options along with pakistan in getting energy worldwide. Be it russia, burma, iran. They want India lose out in the energy sector and hence win the race.
RE:Looking back
by Balaji Srinivasan on Apr 20, 2007 04:45 PM Permalink
That is because if India signs on the dotted line, the yanks will have the right to "inspect, cap and rollback" India's nuclear missile capability.
RE:Looking back
by harifromchennai on Apr 20, 2007 05:14 PM Permalink
Hi Balaji, IAEA has no right to inspect the facilities other than meant for them to be. As per the agreement, India already segregated most of their FBRs and some of the facilities which contributes to nuclear arsenal out of the purview of the IAEA. Hence, no concerns on cap, rollback etc.
