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Looking ahead...
by Govi Gaini on Mar 23, 2007 12:41 AM

Read the rest only if you believe India will beat SL.

India's path to semis looks brighter than
before. Here are my super eight teams, with
points carried.

Super-8
Aus(2), SA(0)
Ind(2), SL(0)
NZ(2), Eng(0)
WI(2), Ire(0)

Assuminig that Ireland will not win a single
game, here is the points tally (remember WI plays them in pool league)

Aus(4), SA(2)
Ind(4), SL(2)
NZ(4), Eng(2)
WI(2), Ire(0)

Aus, Ind, and NZ have 2 more points than other teams, which makes
them favorites at this point. Now consider the points that teams
have carried from pool games. Aus's and Ind's are hard earned because
they beat stronger teams (SA and SL). That makes them bigger
favorites to move on to semis.
Now India will have to look at games against England and WI as must
wins, then they will be very close to making to semis.

Even though WI will move to Super-8 with 2 points, it has to consider unlucky because
those points are from a win over the weakest
team in Super-8. But on the brighter side, they
will have an extra game compared to other
teams if you take out Ireland from the picture.

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India chances: What numbers say