SL will win if they score 270 if they bat first or restrict the opponent to 270 if they field first. SL and AUS are evenly matched in terms of skill. Australia may have slight edge in batting although their lower order was never tested. Bowling edge goes to SL, especially if their players play first ten overs cautiously if asked to bat first. Both teams have excellent fielding. Menatlly both are strong.
It is true that SL lost to AUS in super 8, but AUS took 44 overs to score about 225. SL rested their aces -- Malinga and Murali for that game. If SL wins the toss, they should field and will easily win the match. If they lose the toss and have to bat first, their chances will diminish unless they are very careful during first fifteen overs. Toss will give unfair edge to the side that calls it correctly.
Should be a memorable one. I look forward to tomorrow's game. Let us support SL even with our reservation about Murali and Malinga's style.