In fact I think schumi has more chances than Alonso. I think Alonso will find it hard to complete the race unless he is in pole in qualifying or atleast in the second place. The number of ppl (in all levels in F1) supporting Ferrari and Schumi is too dangerous for Alonso who has little support, even from his teammate. To say Alonso has done it till now against heavy odds, against an all time great, speaks of his driving talents. However, only a first row at the start of the race can help Alonso's cause. By now he and his team must be already aware of it.