UPA is now nothing but Sonia and a few hanger ons. Except catholics, no one would vote for them. Not even protestants and and other Christian denominations. Congressmen, true to their character, would jump ship when the wind start flowing in other direction.
Sonia is a liability for the party. Congress MPs win on their own and she takes the credit. They know it and waiting for an opportunity to switch to Mayawati.