The first proxy indicator of how MMS will be rewarded is the result of the confidence vote.
The result of the confidence is an outcome of how the UPA and NDA coalitions are strengthened or depleted. The coalition that succeeds in augmenting its political representation will win. The coalition that ends up depleted will lose.
MMS has skillful used the nuclear issue to widen the UPA. The NDA seem to be depleting by the hour. Things can change of course. But as it stands, the UPA is galloping away for a 2nd term