pawar could have been the prime minister had he not left the congress. i am not sure if his claim that NCP is an important party in national and regional politics will help him claim the number 1 position in the country anymore.
Besides, in gujrat BJP won only because there hasnt been any strong opposition leader or a party against Narendra Modi. If not for Modi, BJP wouldnt have stood a chance of winning in Gujrat. If Modi moves to the center, BJP is bound to lose ground in gujrat.
As for Himachal, the anti-incumbency factor seems to have worked against the Congress among various other factors. I am not so sure about the issues in Himachal hence cant comment much!