1. Congress has a 10% lead over the BJP and expected to have more than a comfortable majority. (Cong 41%, BJP 30.5%, JD(S) 22.5)
2. Though the state appear to have a multi-polar contest among Cong, BJP and JD(S), in majority of seats, effectively it is a a bi-polar fight that puts BJP into a disadvantage. The JD(S) trailing the BJP by 7% vote share, may end up close to the seat tally of the BJP as their votes are concentrated giving them a higher strike rate.
3. The BJP is poised to be decimated in Bangalore and suffer major losses in the coastal belt. In North Karnataka, the BJP holds the edge but expected to suffer minor erosion in its vote share. There is evidence that the Lingayat base of the BJP showing signs of strain.
4. The share of other parties like SP, JD(U), BSP comes down to around 6-7%.
Watch CNN-IBN Tuesday, 29th April, 2008 9.30 pm for details
