- The Congress attracted maximum applicants per constituency - there are virtual stampede of applicants. The JD(S) the least. - The Congress still attracts maximum defections. The JD(S) none at all. In fact, it looks that the sheep is deserting the JD(S) lock stock and barrel.
In 2004 Lok Sabha elections the BJP won more than half the seats but could not repeat the same performance for the Assembly elections. Among reasons was that in the Lok Sabha, the stature of Vajpayee came into play and not the likes of local politicians.
Besides BJP's image has suffered due to:
a. Fanning Kannadiga-Tamil disunity in the Hoggenakkal issue b. Selling of tickets to the highest bidder, diregarding winnability of candidates c. Bellary mining mafia controlling the party. In fact, why the JD(S) transfer to BJP did not take place was because the JD(S) objected to this mafia accorded cabinet status d. Packing selection list with only Lingayat candidates, reinforing the image that the BJP in Karnataka is a Lingayat party, alienating it from other communities
On basis of these pointers, the Congress seems favorites to win the elections especially with the base of the JD(S) disintegrating. The return of SM Krishna consolidates the Vokkaliga vote bank behind Congress.
There is high possibility of non-Lingayata communities adopting tactical voting against the BJP. These include Vokkaligas, Muslims and linguistic minorities, particularly Tamils, SCs and STs.
