Telugus will be split between the BJP and Congress. Tamils will vote JDS or congress except the Brahmins(Iyers/Iyengars) who will go with the BJP(80%) or Congress (15%).
Lingayats will not let Yediyurappa and the BJP down. Bunts and Konkanis might also go with the BJP.
North Indians will go with the BJP.
BJP if they are united and smart can win this. Arun Jaitley types will be needed to manage for victory.