The dynamics of Maya Victory
by ajith prasad on May 18, 2007 04:06 PM
You complain about the vanity of lengthy political comments after the spectacular victory of Mayavati at the UP election and go on and on to expound what went right or wrong in the election. One can diminish the political acumen and strategic planning of Mayavati and her advisers. She realized early on, may be ten years back, if she had to be a force to recon with in the UP politics she needs support not only from her very own Dalits but also from other sections of the society. She has been trying to build up this support right from the previous election with indifferent success. The limited success of the strategy in the previous elections was primarily due to two reasons: the perceptible lack of credibility among the people, especially the Higher Castes, in her approach and unfavourable political environment. One is not sure; how far the credibility factor has become favourable to her now; but one thing is sure, the political environment has undergone a sea change favouring her at the moment. Ironically, she should profusely thank Mulayam for this windfall of electoral success. It is his miss-rule and his associate%u2019s political and business miss-deeds that have created an atmosphere of helplessness and revulsion in a large section of the population. In a general election it is this floating population of voters who decides the fate of a particular party or a combine of parties. While die-hard carders stay rooted to parties irrespective of the miss-deeds of their leaders the floating voters are swayed by the contemporary politico-social events.
To the outraged and disgusted voters of UP Mayavati offered an option. Hers of course is the most credible alternative available to the voters. Mulayam has already discredited himself. BJP could have become viable and credible alternative. But they took voters for granted and played the same old trick to the gallery. The result, BJP leadership came across to the people as a thoroughly confused lot with no firm plan and programme. And the Congress, the less we talk about it the better. But if we look at the vote share it is clear that it is the BJP that has lost the trust of voters more severely than other parties. Add to this some shift of the Muslim votes towards Mayavati, as they perceived her the only winnable party in the election. Hence, Mayavati%u2019s electoral victory appears to have been governed by the forces of socio-political selection, very much like the Natural Selection in organic evolution.
