I have lived for several years in Ahemedabad. I have seen that the BJP was the main party in starting the riots ro divide the people. They very successfully created their "Hindutva laboratory" in Ahmedabad and then spread it around to Baroda which was normally a peaceful city. Modi created the Godhra massacre since he knew he would have lost the 2002 polls. Congress had defeated BJP hugely in the civic polls in 2001 and Modi was scared of losing the 2002 polls. He instigated the riots and violence to create an atmosphere of terror for the Hindus. The hindu's in the tribal district who never voted BJP did so enmasse so BJP swept those districts to retain power. You will see that this time those districts will vote against BJP and the results will reflect that.