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Congress survival depends on Muslim Vote
by on Apr 20, 2007 10:53 PM

Sonia is just a shrewd politician - surely wiser than Narasimha Rao who failed to understand the real political dynamics of this country. Congress ruled the country for about 5 decades after independence and Muslim base was the most critical constituent that enabled it. Narasimha Rao failed to protect the Babri Mosque hoping that Hindus will vote for him, but in the process lost the Muslim vote. Hindus in any way would not have voted for him. The strategy backfired and with the Muslims turning away their support the Congress was banished into oblivion and could barely survive on the crutches of non-entity parties. The one and only way for Congress to gain its pre-eminence is to win back Muslim support - the way it was almost guaranteed during Nehru, Indra, Rajiv times. It is the Muslim support base alone which tends to be loyal, if not forever, but alteast for a few decades (Mulayam;s rule, Lalu' rule, Left rule in Bengal etc are examples).
Many people often wonder as to how does a minority vote enable political parties to rule this country, even at the cost of antagonizing the majority?? This is indeed baffling but there seems to be a logical explanation:
1. The Muslim population has grown substantially all over the country and more so concentrated in key strategic states and districts. The official percentage of Muslims in states vary (from 75 in JK to about 38-40 in Assam , to about 30 in W Bengal and Kerala, to about 25 in most states such as UP, Bihar, Maharashtra,..Notice that the states so far counted return the maximum number of MPs except JK. Then the Muslim percentages vary from 10 to 20 in other states mostly. Thus overall, if you were to make a very rough average of what Muslim percentage in each constituency, this will come to about 20%. Now bear in mind, this is the official statistic which is highly conservative to avoid any fear mongering by RSS and groups. In actual realty (and the political parties know), the Muslim percentages in each constituency will be anywhere in the range of 25-30. Now on voting day, traditionally Muslim voting is relatively higher. Hence if the total vote polled is 60%, then it is very likely that the Muslim share will be 25 votes out of 60 votes (hence Muslim voting effective percentage is 25/60 which is roughly 40%. And there you go, anyone polling 40% is sure to win!

So you still think these politicians are foolish or just too enthusiastic in wooing Muslims? Keep the Muslims happy and you rule the country for long while at the same time taking the moral high ground that they are protecting minorities of the land!

Then how come the same logic be not applied for majority voters too and ensure that their party wins? Well, technically its possible but practically it will not work in our country. Why is it so? I leave it to you to analyze! Surely, there is an explanation for that as well.

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Sonia sends Urdu letter