That was a realistic analysis. Nevertheless you have overlooked one factor. The people of Tamil Nadu are capable of discerning between an assembly election and a parliamentary election. In 1980 when Mr. Karunanidhi , who had by then become addicted to power , chose to forget all wounds inflicted on him by Indira Gandhi during emergency and re align with the congress before the mid term lok sabha polls, the AIADMK was badly routed returning only two MPs out of forty seats. Riding on this sweep , he prevailed upon Mrs. Gandhi to dismiss the M.G.R govenment and the grounds were totally icomprehensible. Even before the assembly elections, the DMK made it clear to the alliance partners that it would retain the chief ministership. That was when the same Mr. Karunanidhi who had refused to part with any assembly seats in 1971 to the congress allies, agreed to give more than 100 seats to the congress and bargained for Chief ministership for his party ( himself). The deal was struck but the people of T.N had other ideas and M.G.R . returned to power with a thumping majority. Therefore while the alliance arithmetic no doubt is a crucial factor, it is never a sole factor.
