%u2013 %u201CThe secret is what%u2019s called a %u2018viral expansion loop,%u2019 a concept little known outside of Silicon Valley (go ahead, Google it%u2014you won%u2019t find much).%u201D Of course you wont%u2019 find it on Google (NSDQ: GOOG). Cause it%u2019s some B-school phrase meaning viral growth, which you%u2019ll find everywhere on Google.
%u2013 %u201CYou can build a billion-dollar business from scratch%u201D. Um%u2026where?
%u2013 %u201CIt%u2019s not unlike taking a penny and doubling it daily for 30 days. By the end of a week, you%u2019d have 64 cents; within two weeks, $81.92; by day 30, about $5.4 million.%u201D Keep in mind, there is no proof that%u2019s actually money we%u2019re talking about, in Ning%u2019s case.
%u2013 %u201CThe company estimates that, at this rate, by New Year%u2019s Eve 2010 it will host some 4 million social networks, with tens of millions of members, serving up billions of page views daily.%u201D This is exactly how Clay Shirky brilliantly dissected the Second Life hype, also in the pages of Valleywag. Active social network numbers, please?
%u2013 %u201CWhich is how Ning has been able to grow at a daily average of more than .4% and add 500 new groups a day, doubling roughly every 137 days. %u2018It%u2019s the power of compounding, predictable growth rates,%u2019 Bianchini says.%u201D Actually, no, if it is viral, then no way it can be predictable. And yes, as Vwag points out, whatever the growth is, it won%u2019t be sustained. Period
