Here is my rough and ready analysis. Domestically India is currently at 30 mppa. At least 40% are low fare. If growth continues at a conservative rate of 15% CAGR, we should have 60 mppa in 5 years. China is at 180 mppa with a negligible low fare component. If its growth is 10% in a restricted regime for 3 years and 15% in a more liberal climate then it will have about 300 mppa after 5 years. If even 5% of these are via genuinely low cost aviation, the number would be 15 mppa. So India would have to have 25% of genuine low cost travel to match China. That is the challenge India faces in competing with China in low cost aviation. Will our policy makers be able to rise to the challenge? They are the weak links in the chain not the Gopinaths.
