India can win quite comfortably in crucial match on 23rd against SL provided right team is selected. I know based on performances only ROBIN UTHAPPA is certainly going to be dropped!!
I have previously commented that INDIA should play with more regular batsman rather than regular bowlers. Bring just 2 regular opening bowlers Zaheer Khan & Sreesanth. Play with 7 regular batsman Ganguly, Sehwag, Dravid, Sachin, Dhoni, Yuvraj, Karthik and bring in Pathan as batting alrounder rather than bowling alrounder (this seems slightly stupid) and pick one spinner (Better Harbhajan).
If INDIA goes for same team which played against BERMUDA I can bet, they are coming back home on weekend surely.
Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007 By Anil Chandra K
India has two objectives. First is to qualify for Super 8. Second is to carry points to Super 8. For that the ideal situation seems India beats Sri Lanka and both qualify for the Super 8. Statistically it is lot more complicated than that.
Bangladesh Vs Bermuda
We need to start with the last match of the group - Bangladesh Vs. Bermuda. When Bangladesh starts the match, it will have target victory margin for it to advance into Super 8. Such target victory margin should help Bangladesh have a clear perspective of what to do to land the second position in NRR. If at that point, India is first and SL is second, India & Bangladesh will advance to the Super 8, with India not carrying any points. Alternatively if India is second and SL is first, SL & Bangladesh will advance (after Bangladesh achieves its victory margin target in the final match) with India left high and dry. So, India should top the table with SL next in NRR before Bangladesh match with Bermuda starts. In addition to this, if India%u2019s NRR is far higher than that of SL, it will be easier for Bangladesh to reach SL%u2019s NRR.
In order to achieve this, the following must happen.
Bangladesh Vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka should beat Bangladesh. But NOT with a big margin.
If Bangladesh wins, it will be Bangladesh and (India or Sri Lanka) in the super 8. And even if India reaches super 8, it will not carry any points from group matches.
So, it is important from India%u2019s point of view (semi final chances), Sri Lanka should beat Bangladesh.
But victory margin should not be high. It should be a close match. If it is not a close match, Sri Lanka%u2019s NRR will be higher than that of India, which means that India should beat Sri Lanka with higher margin to reach Super 8. This will put heavy pressure on India.
It is possible that we get target victory margin over Sri Lanka of 200 . It will make impossible for India to reach Super 8. (Forget about carrying points)
In other words, India%u2019s chances of reaching super 8 will be determined in THIS match. Not India Vs Sri Lanka match.
India Vs Sri Lanka
%u201CIndia should beat Sri Lanka.%u201D All calculations are based on assumption that India beats Sri Lanka. If not, forget you ever read this. Before going into this match, target victory margin for India will be available. This value depends on Sri Lanka Vs Bangladesh match. It is also possible that victory margin does not matter. (India already has better run rate than Sri Lanka) It is very important for India%u2019s semi final chances that India beat Sri Lanka with least victory margin but higher than the target victory margin. After Sri Lanka match, India%u2019s NRR must be higher than that of Sri Lanka, but not very high.
If Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh with Big Margin what could go wrong for India?
Sri Lanka will have better NRR than India, which could mean that Sri Lanka and Bangladesh could go to Super 8 as Bangladesh knows exactly what it needs to surpass India%u2019s NRR.
In order to stop this, India must beat Sri Lanka with huge margin.
But if Sri Lanka and Bangladesh match is close, India has chance of having better NRR than Sri Lanka after win over Sri Lanka.
Conclusion Sri Lanka must beat Bangladesh but it should be a close game. India must beat Sri Lanka with just enough margin to be #1 in NRR. Hope that Bangladesh%u2019s victory margin over Bermuda is not high enough for it to reach super 8.
RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by Rinkesh Ambavi on Mar 20, 2007 05:44 PM Permalink
Arey Stupid... if srilanka beats bangladesh with big margin then their NRR goes in negative... dont u knw tht....we want srilanka to qualify..so let srilanka beat bangladesh with big margin.. & with such big negative NRR bangladesh cannot even dream fo beating bermuda by 300-350 runs...got it...buddhu!
RE:RE:RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by bermuda triangle on Mar 20, 2007 08:07 PM Permalink
And India can still lose to Sri Lanka and qualify. Provided Bangladesh lose to Sri Lanka AND Bermuda!
RE:Statistical study of India%u2019s position in World Cup 2007
by Zulfiqar Dholkawala on Mar 20, 2007 05:36 PM Permalink
Your calculations are pretty good but what I feel rather than looking at other teams and waiting for their results INDIA should select best team and prefrom more than 100% on 23rd March.
Cricket is highly an unpredictable game. there are good and bad days. And India had an unfortunately a bad day that any of these (sehwag, sachin, dravid & dhoni) could not stay there for longer time. But saurav had a good day on that day. remember he faced about 130 balls for his meek 60 odd runs. But sachin, dravid, dhoni or sehwag had that chance of playing atleast 75 balls they would have definitely crossed 100 runs. Frankly gangu was too defensive from the begining. He slowed down the run rate. if one or two wickets fall, it does not mean that you should stay away from scoring runs. It was his negative cricket which upset the whole batting order. similarly, in the second match also he started to be very defensive. what for you tend to be very defensive when you are forced to make a huge score for the survival of the team? Remember sehwag also too defensive at starting of his innings. dhoni, sachin, yuvaraj also the same for that matter. But being there at the crease you need to take the resposiblity to score faster in order to install confidence to the new batsman who arrive at the crease during a wicket' fall. I am sure that gangu is aware of this fact. He started accelerating in the second only after yuvaraj started going big and india reaching a good winning score. and immely he got out also. If you have not watched gangu in this angle yet, pl watch his next game. he is definitly not playing for the team now. I am really aware of ganguly's skills and he comes down the pitch against spinners, it could not be anything less than six. But i do not need to say how many balls he could touch coming down the crease the last two matches. And he got out at coming down the pitch. He indeed gifted his wicket in the bangladesh match when it was needed the most. Pl. do not get annoyed with my comments. But this is the truth and
RE:Saurav to be replaced
by Rediff Bol on Mar 20, 2007 06:38 PM Permalink
Hey Wils ... Man, you're the tops. Seriously, you should take up a cricket consultancy for all the cricket teams of the world!
You haven't realized yet, have you, that if your "Gangu" "could have" got out earlier, we "could have" got all out within 100 against B'desh? You haven't realized it yet, have you, that most times, it is necessary for one batsman (at least) to hold one end while the strike rotates around him? Do you think someone like Sachin scored 7 off 26 balls, or Dravid 14 off 28 (AND Sehwag 2 off 6) because your "Gangu" played "defensive" "negative" and "slow"? Why didn't they run him out, Wils pal?
You must have played lots of international cricket in disguise!
RE:RE:Saurav to be replaced
by on Mar 20, 2007 07:24 PM Permalink
I think Saurav Ganguly is definitely NOT playing for the team, however he is ensuring that his individual score is BIG enough. He can fool everyone but not the smart people. He played defensively to lift morale of Bangaldeshi players, however didn't get out early until reaching a decent score. Saurav Ganguly is definitely the man India need out of the team (and out of WI) at this time.
RE:RE:RE:Saurav to be replaced
by noeducationbadenglish on Mar 20, 2007 08:10 PM Permalink
U great langool(tail) want to drop gangool? U r a garbej stinking on the road oaeting to be cleard by the moonichipalitie. DOnt talk rubish u engleesh medium and me poor man bad eengeesh good hart.
RE:Saurav to be replaced
by Abhay T on Mar 20, 2007 06:31 PM Permalink
We need someone to play an anchor role. But, I belive Dravid should do that better. Ganguly is making things too difficult for himself and the player at other end. He can definately have a strike rate of 80 by taking more singles. By rotating wicket, the players remain under pressure (because of left-right combination). In my view, even if he is making runs, those runs don't matter for the victory. In BD match, if he had made 80 runs, India definately had a good chance of winning it.
RE:Saurav to be replaced
by noeducationbadenglish on Mar 20, 2007 10:09 PM Permalink
Few peepool in rediff post is veri jelusy. God giv them no bren when he borned. I poor maan bad engleesh and thay convint educashon but no bren. Thay is haaf brother of one fan equali brenles and crazy both peepool are and also sum other so hear and their. One theeng thay kno is talk agenst gangool the maan who holds the falling fortress, hoo is the thread through which the beads pass too mayk it a garland. Thank u gangool for hold the inings together. Fools tel manything which Gangool do not mind may Gods bless all fools.
Fools tel u selfish hoen you perish Gangul try to hit and lift the score.
The fools impossibul comments me laugh veri veri. Forgiv me and thankis for reading me. Indeen fan my papa giv me educashon not veri good but you are a fool not to understood thet altho me EEngleesh baad and mistak speling I ekpspres try to say something. If you don understan this EEngleesh, I am a Bangawli (from Calkuta) not Arungawli (from Mumbee)teech u this EEngleesh 15/- rs per hour one hr free teech for every 10 hr booking.
RE:RE:Saurav to be replaced
by Bala Natarajan on Mar 21, 2007 06:25 AM Permalink
Hello Mr. noeducationbadenglish, I know, you are purposely writing wrong English and doing spelling mistakes. There is a difference in genuine mistake and the ones done on purpose. Unfortunately, one can understand the wrong English with good thoughts but its difficult to understand the paragraph with wrong English and no direction of the thoughts. If you really want to object something or comment on something then try your level best to explain it properly. Anyways, I dont have any comments on your thoughts.
What have we to do with past records.Indian team should play consistantly like Aussis.Whenit is not there we can not say who will win.Some times our team plays very good and sometimes they play like school boys.
RE:cricket
by Marwin Joe on Mar 20, 2007 04:40 PM Permalink
Even Australia is not playing consistantely. The biggest example is that after making 434 against South Africa they lost that match when there was 1 ball still remaining. Even since last few months Aussis not playing in ths same way as they tend to do till 2 years back. We can not compare Indian team with any other team in the world as no body can predict about the Indian team. They can even loose a match against Bangladesh and they can even beat Australia by a huge margin
Boys let us do something different instead for praying for India to win let us start praying for the loss of Sri Lanka as well Ha ha ha ha what do you say......... hey prabhu thodi si to lift giraa de (drop down) lanka ki Nrr ki lift giraa de, Kaise Kaise ko jitaya (Bangladesh Vs. India), kaise kaise ko haraya (Ireland Vs. Pakistan), ek baar phir gira de (let Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka). thodi si to lift giraa de......
Hey guys what do you think do i write good songs ..........
RE:LET US ALL SING THIS PRAYER
by Vivek Renganathan on Mar 20, 2007 04:40 PM Permalink
Nice song buddy... You can become next Anu malik... (Just Kidding.. ) :)
RE:RE:LET US ALL SING THIS PRAYER
by charan singh on Mar 20, 2007 05:14 PM Permalink
Thanks buddy what about A R Rehmaan ( not kidding ha ha ha ha ha ..........:)
RE:LET US ALL SING THIS PRAYER
by koyya reddy on Mar 21, 2007 03:16 AM Permalink
hahaha ur song is too good for this post buddy.hope the lift comes to india only
What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss....
I think India should set target 300 runs and win by 50 runs if bats first.
If India bowls SriLanka shuold set tatrget 260 plus and India able to reach target by 44 overs with 6 wickets in HAND score 260/4 WILL YOU AGREEE??? FRIENDS???
RE:What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss....
by Ian Chappel on Mar 20, 2007 04:40 PM Permalink
Dear mate Munna Bhai...
My feeling is that India will move to super 8.. If I think from Tom Moody's point of view. I concluded these things are going through his mind..!
Theory : 1--I will beat B'desh by a big margin to get miles ahead of India and B'desh.. 2--I dont want to take risk in the match against India,so I will not only beat B'desh but beat them by a big margin.. 3--After the victory against B'desh I will let India to win the match against us so that they qualify against us.. Reasons.. Srilanka dont want the soft bate like B'desh for stronger teams like Aus, SA and New'land in super 8, they will definitely prefer India there who got the ability to thrash these countries..
I just want to ask you guys...Is it correct to loss the match against a team on purpose for bigger goals??....Will you call it ethical or not??..If it is ethical then India will surly reach in super 8.. Thought on it are Invited..
RE:RE:What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss....
by angelo rodrigues on Mar 20, 2007 05:24 PM Permalink
Well dude u sure have a good point here and for once we may think that this theory of urs wud work but not to forget Bangladesh have the last game of the group and that too against a very weak opponent that means they wud be well aware of wat is required of them to qualify for the Super Eight where as India and Sri Lanka have no clue as to how to increase the NRR.
RE:What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss....
by radhika kumari on Mar 20, 2007 04:17 PM Permalink
whi cares for no of wickets in hand? NRR doesnt mention no of wickets anywhere. it will help if that 44 comes down to 40 may be?
What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss....
I think India should set target 300 runs and win by 50 runs if bats first.
If India bowls SriLanka shuold set tatrget 260 plus and India able to reach target by 44 overs with 6 wickets in HAND score 260/4 WILL YOU AGREEE??? FRIENDS???
RE:What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss
by charan singh on Mar 20, 2007 04:29 PM Permalink
Yeah I do agree with you India should target good NRR but they can decide their strategy after tomorrows match between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as it is going to be a very interesting match because both the teams will fight to their strengths as both of them would try to increase their NRR. Really just imagine if Sri Lanka Losses to India WOW....
But First India should have winning in their mind because if they will win, Bangladesh losses to Sri Lanka. It will be very difficult for Bangladesh to surpass Indian NRR. so India does have brighter chances but again winning against Sri Lanka is first and must......
so let us do this thing
Boys let us do something different instead for praying for India to win let us start praying for the loss of Sri Lanka as well Ha ha ha ha what do you say......... hey prabhu thodi si to lift giraa de (drop down) lanka ki Nrr ki lift giraa de, Kaise Kaise ko jitaya (Bangladesh Vs. India), kaise kaise ko haraya (Ireland Vs. Pakistan), ek baar phir gira de (let Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka). thodi si to lift giraa de......
Hey guys what do you think do i write good songs ..........
RE:RE:What is India's chances againt Lanaka? who will win Discuss
by Ian Chappel on Mar 20, 2007 04:41 PM Permalink
dear mate Munna Bhai.. My feeling is that India will move to super 8.. If I think from Tom Moody's point of view. I concluded these things are going through his mind..!
Theory : 1--I will beat B'desh by a big margin to get miles ahead of India and B'desh.. 2--I dont want to take risk in the match against India,so I will not only beat B'desh but beat them by a big margin.. 3--After the victory against B'desh I will let India to win the match against us so that they qualify against us.. Reasons.. Srilanka dont want the soft bate like B'desh for stronger teams like Aus, SA and New'land in super 8, they will definitely prefer India there who got the ability to thrash these countries..
I just want to ask you guys...Is it correct to loss the match against a team on purpose for bigger goals??....Will you call it ethical or not??..If it is ethical then India will surly reach in super 8.. Thought on it are Invited..
