The survey showed what we Kannadigas knew all along. While it succeeded in establishing the trend - Congress coasting to victory, it failed to grasp the scale.
The BJP has termed Karnataka Assembly polls as their Gateway to South India. It will turn out to be the Graveyard and with that, whole of South India will be purified from the evil force - BJP
RE:BJP can be reduced to a Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 02:50 AM Permalink
The Deccan-Herald pre-poll survey that BJP is not only a Lingayat party but that too confined to Mumbai-Karnataka region, where they are expected to sweep. This is the region where Lingayats concentrate in high numbers.
The Congress is main challenger to the BJP in this region. Consequently if all non-Lingayats in that region consolidate their voting around Congress than BJP will be practically wiped out from Karnataka competing with minor parties like SP, JD(U), BSP for third place.
RE:RE:BJP can be reduced to a Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 02:51 AM Permalink
hy even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:RE:RE:BJP can be reduced to a Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 02:51 AM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205. Almost all the English news channel predicted similarly. The knickerwallahs then used to cite these polls to bloster BJP's chances.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by Indian on May 01, 2008 11:19 AM Permalink
Tathagata, you are highly opinionated and selective with data. You choose the data you like and ignore the one you do not like based on your biases. It is clear that you are a congress lackey. May be you are a party worker creating public opinion through public forums.
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by Inquilaab Zindabad on May 01, 2008 01:45 PM Permalink
People who dont want to accept the truth can blame media , its a good strategy
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by Pradeep Manghat on May 01, 2008 03:02 PM Permalink
cnn ibn told BJP will loose in GUJ,PUN,DEL LOCAL ELE and SS will loose in MAH local elections what happened,,,,,,,
everyone knows every english media is anti-hindu and anti-BJP they tend to create a idea in public mind what they want,,,,,,, but result will be difrent.....
this time BJP is going to come in 1st place..
the ground reality is diffrent but what media that too the barking dogs bharka,sardesai are bulshit...
if u don't believe me just watch cnn there will be one artical aganist BJP from today...
Fighting the caste system makes you a true Hindu. The caste system is part of the Brahminism religion that enterted India via migration from the Arab world. Do the upper castes look like Tom Cruz or Pamela Anderson or do they look like Saddam Hussien and Bin Laden? The answer is that they look like Saddam and Bin Laden and rest of the Arab kinds. The upper caste people are not mixed-breed whites from Northern Europe, instead they are migrants from the Arab world. The true Hindus need to take back India from these Brahminical hijackers. The root of true India is the Indus valley civilization, yoga and Shiva worship. All Vishu awatars are imports from the Arab world where birth based existance supercedes everything else.
RE:Fighting the caste system makes you a true Hindu
by Modrator on May 01, 2008 07:10 AM Permalink
are you in senses while writing this... i think you are desperate for reservation...
RE:Fighting the caste system makes you a true Hindu
by Arun Kumar on May 01, 2008 03:35 PM Permalink
Well said.. This guy doesnt have brains i guess.. All he should be having is mud in his head.
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205. Almost all the English news channel predicted similarly. The knickerwallahs then used to cite these polls to bloster BJP's chances.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN
Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:BJP can be Reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:51 PM Permalink
The Deccan-Herald pre-poll survey that BJP is not only a Lingayat party but that too confined to Mumbai-Karnataka region, where they are expected to sweep. This is the region where Lingayats concentrate in high numbers.
The Congress is main challenger to the BJP in this region. Consequently if all non-Lingayats in that region consolidate their voting around Congress than BJP will be practically wiped out from Karnataka competing with minor parties like SP, JD(U), BSP for third place.
RE:RE:BJP can be Reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:51 PM Permalink
y srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
Main social issue hindering poor families is arrack. Rural poor families are getting destroyed and spoiled by liquor and low grade arrack by Congress liquor lobbies. Drunken men abuse kids and women there by destroying whole family. Because of family arrack drinking tradition, teens also start drinking arrack and spoil their career and do not go to schools. This has been happening since 60 years. In fact Congress is supplying arrack during election for vote bank. It was only BJP banned arrack to save poor families in our state. Now all arrack and liquor lobbies are trying defeat BJP.
RE:Arrack lobbies are playing major role in defeeting BJP
by NEELAKANTAN R on Apr 30, 2008 09:46 PM Permalink
WE STILL CALL THIS AS DEMOCRACY AND ADULT FRANCHAICE. IN INDIA WHAT WE HAVE IS MODIFIED FORM OF AUTOCRACY AND ADULTERED FRANCHISE.
RE:Arrack lobbies are playing major role in defeeting BJP
by Sandeep Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:07 PM Permalink
adults dont hv the right to choose their lifestyle and diet? they need wise guys like u , me and BJP to dictate what who will drink? this attitude of lordship over others has destroyed our society in india from british times... govt knows best! people are fools! same indians when they settle abroad..as NRIs shine bigtime.. coz they hv no big dads and social guardians to dictate their lives and decisions ! so they behave as responsible adults and succeed in life! lets ban BJP/ VHP..shiv sena... jamiat e islami.. deoband islamic school.. sgpc controlled sikh theocracy .. priyaranjan das munshi's ministry of culture ( ministry of censorship and bans!) and then lets see the reults once india is free finally from the british system of social controls!
