How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205. Almost all the English news channel predicted similarly. The knickerwallahs then used to cite these polls to bloster BJP's chances.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 11:17 AM Permalink
For those who are new in Rediff Forum!Tathagata is no Commie and is staunch BJP worker!I challenge Tathagata to deny this!Hiding behind bangla name or even it is Bangla name but even Bengal has staunch BJP suppoters !One has to to entire messages of Tathagata Mukherjee to understand his psyche!I will send a CD of the messages I collected to prove my point!But he stand exposed !Tathagta Mukherjee first know that Tathagata is the also one of the name of Lord Budhdha !I have said this in my message earlier also!Remenber Tathagata Mukherjee ! Collect all Tathagata mukherjee's messages to understand his psyche!He wanted you have to irritated against congress/Commie!And see he has succeeded!That's innovative propagnada!
RE:RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 11:28 AM Permalink
It is quite innovatibg to call his own BJP fellows as Knickerwallahas!Realyy innovative!One must read the entire messages of Tathgata Mukherjee who here in calls himself Kaanadiga !See his messages below "BJP can be sibgle digit party!He is definetly hard core BJP party worker!and can go to any limits to propagate the BJP party!His entire CD of messages can be had !Why pretend to be a master of Psephology when your goal is to prop[agate BJP!I challenge you to deny this!your CD of messages is proof of your intentiions!Quite Innovative!
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by Muslim on May 01, 2008 11:36 AM Permalink
Mahabodhi, Tu paagal hai. Anyway Hindu Hindu fighting karte raho. Others will take over soon. Phir rote rehna
RE:RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 09:09 PM Permalink
You are muslim !Lord Budhdha once said " The Mind is Everything .What you think you become." May Allah make you ur family and childern good muslims! I have no ill feelings for you! As Lord Budhdha said " TO UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING IS TO FORGIVE EVRYTHING!"
RE:RE:RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 09:15 PM Permalink
@Muslim and please do not worry about us!Our yugas even Kalyug is in million years1We will survive that1But I have been informed that Judgment day is as per many sufis 2076 that is 1500 of Islamic Calender and those who beleive that as pure muslim such as you do the life is finalized by 2076 as many sufis said that Judgment day is about 2076 the 1500 year of Islamic Era!As true muslims you muight be knowing that!And according belief my fore fathers belief According to Indian astronomy and Hindu Mythology, the world is created, destroyed and recreated every 4,320,000 years (Maha Yuga) !So we wil survive 2076 and continue to live long enough !For that I pray to Lord let their be peace !
RE:RE:RE:RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 09:28 PM Permalink
India is our mother Land!Though many envious neighbours have not survived as one entity!But we will survive! " Like brothers we fight, argue and annoy each other - like friends we care, share and love each other." - anon Let enemy be aware of that!
The survey showed what we Kannadigas knew all along. While it succeeded in establishing the trend - Congress coasting to victory, it failed to grasp the scale.
The BJP has termed Karnataka Assembly polls as their Gateway to South India. It will turn out to be the Graveyard and with that, whole of South India will be purified from the evil force - BJP
RE:BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 11:02 AM Permalink
The Deccan-Herald pre-poll survey that BJP is not only a Lingayat party but that too confined to Mumbai-Karnataka region, where they are expected to sweep. This is the region where Lingayats concentrate in high numbers.
The Congress is main challenger to the BJP in this region. Consequently if all non-Lingayats in that region consolidate their voting around Congress than BJP will be practically wiped out from Karnataka competing with minor parties like SP, JD(U), BSP for third place.
RE:RE:BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 11:02 AM Permalink
Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:RE:RE:BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 11:03 AM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
RE:BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by mahabodhi on May 04, 2008 08:51 PM Permalink
While Modi is playing ''development'', Congress is busy playing Caste-card! by Tathagata Mukherjee on Oct 08, 2007 07:41 AM | Hide replies
While Modi is playing "development", Congress is busy playing Caste-card to divide Hindus.
Tell me, what sort of degressive politics is this by Congress? How far they can go down, even by rallying people along caste, which we as a nation are supposed to stop.
Preciely because of these degressive politics, people are supporting aggressive Hindutva which alone can unite Hindus.
Psuedos must wake up and ponder: DID NEHRU NEED CASTE TO PURSUE SECULARISM, DEVELOPMENT? WHY CONGRESS IS RESURRECTING CASTE NOW? DOES IT NOT MEAN, THEY HAVE LOST RATIONALITY, IDEA?
My request to all my kannadiga people to be united in single roof. It is the time to fight within us. So, do not go more than certain level. the election should give a good majarity to any of party to lead the Karnataka to be leading state in world. We do not compare with any foolish people from our neighbours. Our state Karnataka is not cared much till date free from English. The reality is we have rich in culture / Lanuage / mentality.
WE KANNADIGAS ALWAYS ONE. WE NEVER SPLIT AT ANY TIME. JAI KANNADA
RE:All kannadigas should be united
by Muslim on May 01, 2008 11:38 AM Permalink
You Hindus always think of dividing & fighting amongst yourselves. Jai Kannada my foot!!!! Soon there will be Muslim & christain raaj in Karnataka
It seems that middles class which is Bourgeiose and mostly Govt. Employees and adhernece to BJP are using this unique technique for propagation of their party !These are few guidelines provided /or innoated by them 1.Use fake id with Muslim name and abuse BJP 2.Use Muslim id as Alam etc. and write "in our muslim circles we say we two our twenty " 3.appear as congress supporter and give verdict as Tahagata Mukherjee and Write BJP is thinking as Karnataka the gateway to south but it will be grave yard to south of BJP! 4.As BJP is a bourgeiose and Kulak party and its suporters has their stomach full and least bother about the poor they have access to internet and free time-as most are traders with laptop or Govt. Employees /working in Orgnised sectors and follish Commies are there to look after their interst and always call for strike /bandh Airport authority of India /Banks etc. and the BJP supporters utilize the time for prpagting their BJP interst!they are highly motivated!To the extent that they use muslim id and curse the entire Hindu world with all their might even Alquiada mat find hard to match them!The idea is to create hatered towards muslims by Hindus! 5.One example of innovating is Tathgata Mukherjee!He is staunch supporter of BJO(Nothing wrong in that) but uses very innovative statments like Karnataka is the grave yard of BJP!Good work Tathagata Mukherjee!But your real credentials are for BJP only! collected all your messages and will write next time!
RE:GUIDELINES OF SUPPORTERS WORKERS OF BJP AS CAN BE CONFIRMED IN REDIFF FORUM
by Prem Mohan on May 01, 2008 12:58 PM Permalink
"bourgeiose and Kulak party" : That is a strange description. I thought that such language is restricted to die-hard Stalinists. Do you remember how many people Stalin killed? Do you see the condition of North Korea -- the only remaining Stalinist state?
RE:GUIDELINES OF SUPPORTERS WORKERS OF BJP AS CAN BE CONFIRMED IN REDIFF FORUM
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 01:26 PM Permalink
%u201CThe first reaction to truth is hatred%u201D Tertullian
RE:Exactly...
by Shrikanth Pai on May 01, 2008 10:19 AM Permalink
How does it matter? The voters never ask that question. They will vote for him in any scenario. It looks like a bad defeat for Yeddy
Upper north India:- Punjab, haryana, Kashmir,and I think rajasthan should also be part of it, but it gets counted in nothern india.. i dont know why.
There is north india Hindi speaking regions :- UP, Bihar, MP .. Rajasthan, but rajasthan should be struck out of this arrangement.. as vasundhara raje herself said rajasthan is not part of BIMARU states.
West India :- Maharashtra, Gujrat
East India :- Starting from bengal, assam, and 7 sister states of india.
South India :- Four states of karnatak, tamilnadu, kerela, andhara pradesh.
They should be made independent countries. And then they should have economic cooperation and treaties between them. That will be much better than an indian union as it stands today.
Nobody gives damn on it.. every body is after their pockets and money.Indians of current generation both senior aswell as jounior are grredy and selfish generation, state of india deserves destruction in its current form.
RE:INDIA SHOULD BE DIVIDED..
by Muslim on May 01, 2008 11:40 AM Permalink
Tu Hanumaan hai yaa beimaan. Make 2 more divisions: Muslim India & Xian India. Woh din nazdik hai
Congress just making the money!!!!!!!! but BJP will eat whole state yaar. what to do ???? so no chance for BJP. They r let it be ther inside "CHADDI".isnt it???
RE:Ella kannadigaru Ondu sala BJP ge chance kudana
by lambawalla on May 01, 2008 08:52 AM Permalink
No matter how corrupt and inefficient Congress and JDS have been, BJP do not desrve a chance. When it comes to corruption, they are second to none, and in hypocrisy and deceit, they are in a league of their own. They do not mind befooling anyone including Lord Rama, the biggest sufferers at their hands have been those emotional fools, who believe that BJP will do something to stop or slow down the islamisation of the country. When given the chance, they have tried to prove that they are more 'secular' than others. If we have to be ruled by 'secular' parties only, what is wrong with Congress or JD-Secular?
RE:RE:Ella kannadigaru Ondu sala BJP ge chance kudana
by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 09:31 AM Permalink
@allahdimaaki You have stated thatCongress/JDS major projects funds have been eaten by Congress and JDS imgine some thousand crores day light theft of your money !As you stated that then please elborate and give details of the amount siphoned of by the persons naming them!And if you do not know then it is nothing but propagand !and in that case one will think that you are paid worker of the party and now you want to come because coming to ppower as far you and your Leaders is concrned is to make illegal money!So lease eloborate of projects and name the persons and confirm the allegations!By doing this you will do national service!Other wise you and your leaders will be dubbd as fake as your id sure is!Though I feel good that you have attached Allah's name with your id!But in the name of the Lord Ram give details of allegations and no vague allegations if you are patriotic and nationalist !I hope you are nationalist and will reveal the truth with evidence !Other wise the members here will say you antnationalist (If you know then it is your natinalist and Dharma to tell)orpeople will you are anti-national hiding the valuable information of antinatioals you allahdimaaki !
RE:Ella kannadigaru Ondu sala BJP ge chance kudana
by mahabodhi on May 02, 2008 09:11 AM Permalink
"The first reaction to truth is Hatred" Tertullian. You are muslim !Lord Budhdha once said " The Mind is Everything .What you think you become." May Allah make you ur family and childern good muslims! I have no ill feelings for you! As Lord Budhdha said " TO UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING IS TO FORGIVE EVRYTHING!"
RE:RE:RE:RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies by mahabodhi on May 01, 2008 09:28 PM India is our mother Land!Though many envious neighbours have not survived as one entity!But we will survive! " Like brothers we fight, argue and annoy each other - like friends we care, share and love each other." - anon Let enemy be aware of that!
RE:RE:Ella kannadigaru Ondu sala BJP ge chance kudana
by mahabodhi on May 02, 2008 09:12 AM Permalink
And I also return your abuses back to you.As Lord Buddha said, "So I choose not to accept your abuses, you may take them back".
RE:Ella kannadigaru Ondu sala BJP ge chance kudana
by Prakash Nair on May 01, 2008 09:22 AM Permalink
Atleast BJP can not be more sickular than kaangress whose minister job is only to bring samsam water from mecca for muslims..!!! And we have not given them a chance in south india. See how Gujarat got transformed under Modi. So we need to have yeddi here in Ktaka
in shikaaripur there is no chance for yadiyurappa ok. bcoz our evergreen leader bangarappaji comes now.so better yaddi should file nomination from other const. its my sincere suggestion. otherwise will sit at home. thats all now. actually earlier i was also voted to bjp. what yaddi did for us?? nothing made money for himself. from mine maafia.u can also suggest better. ur leader know?? pity on yaddi....chaddi.
RE:to jai hanuman
by JaiHanumaan on May 01, 2008 06:59 AM Permalink
My wishes for both bangarappa and yedurappa. They are both cool guys, kannada country should get a leader which will make kannada country happy.
I have nothing to add there. We will see what happens.
Bangarappa is congress, and this much they already proven by their behaviours in past 10 years they are chor #1 for the country.
RE:to jai hanuman
by Balakrishnan on May 01, 2008 10:33 AM Permalink
If it comes as Hindi belt or named as tamilnadu is ok for you bleady. If we tell as Kannada country, then you people never accept. The history that once kannada rules the India.
RE:to jai hanuman
by JaiHanumaan on May 01, 2008 08:20 AM Permalink
Read carefully, there is nothing called an indian union, it is a federation of independent countries with independent economic intrests. Each state should maintain their separate foot soldiers in case indian union collapses.
Now a days national unity has gone to dogxs and every body is vying for their intrests.Current gener of indians are not better than doxgs.
And I definitely do not want to be a part of a country where Ravan's rule. If I have to choose between India and dharma. I will any day choose dharma.
Our national emblem says "Satyameva jayate", in todays indian politics "satya" is the only thing under fire, and honest ppl are getting sidelined.
Its power and money politics. And all chor and goondas are tearing apart the nation, in the name of language and religion and caste.
India can never be one country, it is better that way, india is a collection of independent cultures.
