by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:13 PM | Hide replies
6. The anger of Brahmins against in many parts of the state is another variable that may work against BJP. Overall, BJP has given just 7 tickets to chaste Brahmins this time. There is a silent anger brewing against BJP for not awarding enough number of tickets to this community. This is true in the districts of Shimoga and Uttara Kannada where Brahmins have been voting BJP all these years. Though Brahmins can't decide the results per se, a negative swing of around 15% may work against BJP.
7. The controversial mining lobby seems to be another important factor that may play a negative role in the parts of Bellary and Chitradurga. It is a well-known fact that the last coalition govt feel on its back just because of mining and real estate. Though BJP may now cry that Gowdas denied Yeddi the CM seat, the real problem was cause by the Reddy clan of Bellary. When J.Reddy alleged that Kumarasway took 150 crore bribes from mining lobby, the govt started crumbling immediately on the same day. Even during the power handing over controversy, the issue of mining and urban development ministries appeared very significantly. Now, people know why both of them wanted the same ministry (during the 20 months rule of coalition, almost 25,000 acres of land was allotted to non-agricultural purposes. All these issues and incidents are still in the memory enlightened voters across the vast land of Karnataka and they may vote against bo
RE:The Real Colors of the BJP
by Ram Sharma on Apr 30, 2008 06:56 PM Permalink
I had thought that casteism was a problem mainly of Bihar and UP. I did not know that so much casteism is there in the minds of South Indians also.
Before first vote is cast, congress gives BJP first seat (Davanagere North). Davanagere North was alloted to Shaffi Ahmed. But supporters of former minster Mallikarjunappa (His father Shivashankarappa is contesting Davanagere South) snatched BForm from Congress observeres and erased Shaffi Ahmed's name and wrote Mallikarjun's name. Returning officer rejected the congress application ensuring easy win for 3 time winner S.A.Ravindranath of BJP. (Scoring self goal congress way). It should affect neighbouring Davanagere North (For the first time BJP gained control of Davanager City Corporation last year) and surrounding 10 seats. Yogendra Yadav are you ready to eat crow when they announce results on May 25.
RE:JD(S) has given Karnataka the best CM's
by on Apr 30, 2008 06:51 PM Permalink
The Davengere North was in any case not a winnable seat for the Congress. But the BJP may still not wi n the seat - the secular consolidation may take place behind the next best candidate whether SP or JD(S).
That's the problem with BJP - counting their chickens before they hatch
Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats) it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
RE:How BJP can be reduced to Single Digits
by on Apr 30, 2008 06:18 PM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 05:17 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. With the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1,60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
RE:How BJP can be reduced to Single Digits
by Ram Sharma on Apr 30, 2008 07:02 PM Permalink
I had thought that casteism was a problem mainly of Bihar and UP. I did not know that so much casteism is there in the minds of South Indians also.
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN.
RE:India must have reservations till 85% of all registered marriages are inter-caste.
by Ram Sharma on Apr 30, 2008 06:03 PM Permalink
Foolish parrot type casteist propoganda. A corrupt person will not help anyone.
