by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:11 PM | Hide replies
Hi all!
It is quite interesting to read forum postings here. Non-Kannadigas and Non-state citizens of India do not understand the caste equations and ground realities of Karnataka. Here are my observations, who is a resident of Karnataka and who has voted more than 25 times (including all types of elections):
1. It seems that BJP is in a terrible hurry to grab power in Karnataka. It also seems that they do not have the kind of edge they had late last and early part of this year.
2. The perceived sympathy wave seems for the BJP to be on the wane and is fast disappearing.
3. The general perception that a particular caste of community will vote for a particular party (read Lingayat and BJP argument). In any given situations, no caste will vote en masse for a particular party. There will be at least 20-25% of vote that may go against a party.
4. This is special time for Karavali or coastal belt of Karnataka. Modi could draw just 5000 people in places like Udupi, Puttur and Karkala which have been the fort like bases for BJP. Rebels like Shakuntala Shetty have damaged the prospects of BJP to a large extent. In a district like Uttara Kannada, BJP has given tickets to many people who are new to the party. In fact, the local MP Ananta Hedge has already started working against his own party!
RE:BJP's True Colors
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:23 PM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:11 PM | Hide replies
Hi all!
It is quite interesting to read forum postings here. Non-Kannadigas and Non-state citizens of India do not understand the caste equations and ground realities of Karnataka. Here are my observations, who is a resident of Karnataka and who has voted more than 25 times (including all types of elections):
1. It seems that BJP is in a terrible hurry to grab power in Karnataka. It also seems that they do not have the kind of edge they had late last and early part of this year.
2. The perceived sympathy wave seems for the BJP to be on the wane and is fast disappearing.
3. The general perception that a particular caste of community will vote for a particular party (read Lingayat and BJP argument). In any given situations, no caste will vote en masse for a particular party. There will be at least 20-25% of vote that may go against a party.
4. This is special time for Karavali or coastal belt of Karnataka. Modi could draw just 5000 people in places like Udupi, Puttur and Karkala which have been the fort like bases for BJP. Rebels like Shakuntala Shetty have damaged the prospects of BJP to a large extent. In a district like Uttara Kannada, BJP has given tickets to many people who are new to the party. In fact, the local MP Ananta Hedge has already started working against his own party!
RE:RE:BJP's True Colors
by Tathagata Mukherjee on Apr 30, 2008 10:24 PM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:13 PM | 6. The anger of Brahmins against in many parts of the state is another variable that may work against BJP. Overall, BJP has given just 7 tickets to chaste Brahmins this time. There is a silent anger brewing against BJP for not awarding enough number of tickets to this community. This is true in the districts of Shimoga and Uttara Kannada where Brahmins have been voting BJP all these years. Though Brahmins can't decide the results per se, a negative swing of around 15% may work against BJP.
7. The controversial mining lobby seems to be another important factor that may play a negative role in the parts of Bellary and Chitradurga. It is a well-known fact that the last coalition govt feel on its back just because of mining and real estate. Though BJP may now cry that Gowdas denied Yeddi the CM seat, the real problem was cause by the Reddy clan of Bellary. When J.Reddy alleged that Kumarasway took 150 crore bribes from mining lobby, the govt started crumbling immediately on the same day. Even during the power handing over controversy, the issue of mining and urban development ministries appeared very significantly. Now, people know why both of them wanted the same ministry (during the 20 months rule of coalition, almost 25,000 acres of land was allotted to non-agricultural purposes. All these issues and incidents are still in the memory enlightened voters across the vast land of Karnataka
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205. Almost all the English news channel predicted similarly. The knickerwallahs then used to cite these polls to bloster BJP's chances.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN.
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by Ram Sharma on Apr 30, 2008 07:15 PM Permalink
Why r u repeating same messages again and again to fill up all the spaces?
RE:RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by on Apr 30, 2008 07:55 PM Permalink
Because knickerwallahs continue to belittle opinion polls. When it stops, these messages will automatically stop too.
Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:The BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Ram Sharma on Apr 30, 2008 07:15 PM Permalink
Why r u repeating same messages again and again to fill up all the spaces?
RE:RE:The BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by on Apr 30, 2008 07:55 PM Permalink
Because knickerwallahs continue to belittle opinion polls. When it stops, these messages will automatically stop too.
Internal democracy does not exist in Congress party. All power is concentrated in Sonia parivar, consisting of Sonia, Rahul & Priyanka. All appointments in states and center is done by this parivar only. There is no election there is only selection by high command in the party.
Thus though Krishna's name has been cleared for election, but Chief Ministership will b decided by the parivar after election. Indira had destroyed internal democracy in the party.
Contrast it with the fierce competition in USA between Hillary Clinton and Obama for getting nominated to fight presidential election against the republican candidate.
Once upon a time Congress was very democratic with stalwarts like Tilak, Gandhiji, Nehru, Patel, Kalam, Kamraj, Netaji etc. Netaji once even defeated Gandhiji's candidate for the post of president. Now no one can go against the Parivar.
Sonia is ruling the country from behind the scene, without any accountability and responsibility. Anything good goes to her credit anything bad is passed on as the work of the govt and congress party organisation.
Two road shows of Rahul have flopped in UP and Gujrat. Still he was given another opportunity of road show in Karnataka and is hoping to b PM of the country. Would any other non dynasty congressman have been given so much freedom, power and opportunity?
This gives rise to dictatorial tendencies, corruption and nepotism and very dangerous in the long run.
RE:No internal democracy in Congress is a cause of concern
by on Apr 30, 2008 06:55 PM Permalink
One of knickerwallahs key attack on the Congress was lack of internal democracy. Now a senior Gen Secretary of BJP accuses the party of decisions taken by a kitchen cabinet!!
So it seems how BJP is different from other parties is that while parties like Congress are candid that internal democracy in their party needs improvement, BJP takes a holier than thou attitude when internal democracy within their party is even worse.
RE:No internal democracy in Congress is a cause of concern
by Ram Sharma on Apr 30, 2008 07:00 PM Permalink
Who told u that Congress party thinks that their party needs improvement in terms of internal democracy? Any non dynasty person, who dare say such things, will b promptly thrown out by other congressmen immediately, to show their loyalty to the Sonia Parivar.
It is like day dreaming to think that there can b internal democracy in the party.
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:11 PM | Hide replies
Hi all!
It is quite interesting to read forum postings here. Non-Kannadigas and Non-state citizens of India do not understand the caste equations and ground realities of Karnataka. Here are my observations, who is a resident of Karnataka and who has voted more than 25 times (including all types of elections):
1. It seems that BJP is in a terrible hurry to grab power in Karnataka. It also seems that they do not have the kind of edge they had late last and early part of this year.
2. The perceived sympathy wave seems for the BJP to be on the wane and is fast disappearing.
3. The general perception that a particular caste of community will vote for a particular party (read Lingayat and BJP argument). In any given situations, no caste will vote en masse for a particular party. There will be at least 20-25% of vote that may go against a party.
4. This is special time for Karavali or coastal belt of Karnataka. Modi could draw just 5000 people in places like Udupi, Puttur and Karkala which have been the fort like bases for BJP. Rebels like Shakuntala Shetty have damaged the prospects of BJP to a large extent. In a district like Uttara Kannada, BJP has given tickets to many people who are new to the party. In fact, the local MP Ananta Hedge has already started working against his own party!
