Bangalore has got around 6- 8 lakh votes in IT and BPO sector including people employed and their families. Bangalore and its surroundings has 36 assembly seats. Many of them will vote with a vengeance to BJP to protest congress's Mandal politics. Many of them last time were a political but they live in a tough competitve world and quotas, reservations etc are anthema to them. Many of them support affirmative action based on income but in a competitive world quotas are anthama to them. Congress will soon realize why VP Singh became a foot note in history due to Mandal. Another Singh Arjun Singh is taking congress on the same Garden Path.
1. The number of applicants per ticket per party is directly correlated by the degree of winnability perceived by the party. Accordingly, it can be taken as a proxy indicator of the winnability prospects of the party. The Congress attracted maximun candidates per ticket and from this criteria appear to be most winnable.
2. The intensity of disappointment on failure to get a ticket is also directly correlated to the degree a party is considered winnable. The more a party is considered winnable, the more intensity of disappointment and vice versa. Since the intensity of revolt in BJP is least, the BJP is perceived least capable of winning
RE:Revolt and Winnability
by Suresh Gowda on Apr 22, 2008 08:55 AM Permalink
Supporters of Actor Jaggesh put gardland of slippers on Saint Sonia and Yuvraj Rahul after he was denied ticket. Saint Sonia decides to give Jaggesh Ticket. By the way this guy finished 3rd in last election after JD(S) and BJP. Probably congress will finish 4th this time in this seat after BJP, JD(S), BSP. Great show. Ask Barry Hinn to pray for congress's soul after a heavy defeat.
Yediruppa propaganda suggests that he received the blessing from a senior Lingayat pontiff and now assured of CMs chair. What he didn't disclose that he was CM for 10days, he spent his time visiting temples and getting blessings, including this particular pontiff. Still he came a cropper.
We need a CM who is a CEO like SM Krishna. Not one spending time visiting temples and seeking blessings which does not materialize
If Yediruppa wants to spend his time visiting temples he should be a sadhu in Himalayas and not eye the CM chair, which in any case would elude him
In the first phase there are 89 seats in Old Mysore region. Out of that 36 seats are in Bangalore and its surrounding areas. Lot of software and BPO people remained aloof last time. But this time they will vote with vengeance to BJP after congress's Mandal II fiasco. (Congress will soon realize that why VP Singh became a footnote in history for Mandal I and Arjun Singh is taking congress to same Garden Path). I expect BJP to win minimum 45 seats in I round. People did not give BJP a chance in Hassan and Mandya districts and people are realizing that BJP is going to give JD(S) and congress a tough fight even in so called vokkaliga heartland.
Bottomline - BJP did not count in around 60 seats last time and it lost deposit in 40 of those seats. It starts this time with an advantage with around 70 safe seats and around 130 tough fights and no chance in less than 10-15 seats. If intensive campaign and BJP's carpet bombing strategy with Modi, Advani, Sushma, Rajnath and cadre work in Unison the seat tally can definitely cross 150. But I never see a problem for simple majority under even worst circumstances.
1. The number of applicants per ticket per party is directly correlated by the degree of winnability perceived by the party. Accordingly, it can be taken as a proxy indicator of the winnability prospects of the party. The Congress attracted maximun candidates per ticket and from this criteria appear to be most winnable.
2. The intensity of disappointment on failure to get a ticket is also directly correlated to the degree a party is considered winnable. The more a party is considered winnable, the more intensity of disappointment and vice versa. Since the intensity of revolt in BJP is least, the BJP is perceived least capable of winning
BJP has very strong base in Coastal, Hyd Karnataka, North katnataka, Mumbai karnataka which include Mangalore, Chickkamangalore, Coorge, Udupi, Shimoga, UK, Dharwad-Hubli, Gadag, haveri,Belguam, Davanagere, Gulbarga,Bellary,Bagalkote,Bijapur. If BJP wins 85-90 out of 135 seats in the above districts for 2nd & 3rd phase election, BJP has very bright chances of coming to power. In the first phase of 69 seats in old Mysore region, BJP can win 25-30 seats easily and this time BJP can improve its tally in Kolar, Tumkur, Bangalore city,rural, Mysore. If BJP cannot win 85-90 in its strong base in Upper Karnataka, then it will be hung assembly.
RE:RE:BJP chances Analysis
by Suresh Gowda on Apr 22, 2008 08:42 AM Permalink
In the first phase there are 89 seats in Old Mysore region. Out of that 36 seats are in Bangalore and its surrounding areas. Lot of software and BPO people remained aloof last time. But this time they will vote with vengeance to BJP after congress's Mandal II fiasco. (Congress will soon realize that why VP Singh became a footnote in history for Mandal I and Arjun Singh is taking congress to same Garden Path). I expect BJP to win minimum 45 seats in I round. People did not give BJP a chance in Hassan and Mandya districts and people are realizing that BJP is going to give JD(S) and congress a tough fight even in so called vokkaliga heartland.
Bottomline - BJP did not count in around 60 seats last time and it lost deposit in 40 of those seats. It starts this time with an advantage with around 70 safe seats and around 130 tough fights and no chance in less than 10-15 seats. If intensive campaign and BJP's carpet bombing strategy with Modi, Advani, Sushma, Rajnath and cadre work in Unison the seat tally can definitely cross 150. But I never see a problem for simple majority under even worst circumstances.
Congress leader Siddaramaiah on Monday reportedly expressed his unhappiness over the selection of candidates of his party with his close confidants.
Siddaramaiah, who heads the Party%u2019s campaign committee, held a meeting with Ahinda leaders. He reportedly told the meeting that the party has not given tickets as per his wish list. It would be difficult to bring the party to power, he said.
The meeting was attended by C M Ibrahim, H C Mahadevappa, P Kodandaramaiah among others. The Party has committed blunders in selecting the candidates. The Party%u2019s performance in the polls would depend on the selection of candidates for the next two phases, Siddaramaiah told the meeting. He also told the leaders that he had submitted one more list of candidates of his choice to the Party
There is so much dicontent over ticket distribution in the Congress. Will it affect the polls prospects of the Party?
No. The Congress will get at least simple majority and form the government. The BJP will be in the second place and the JD (S) will be poor third. The BSP will open account in some constituencies.
S M Krishna%u2019s decision to keep off from contesting will have any adverse effect on the Party%u2019s electoral fortunes?
I don%u2019t know why Krishna is not contesting. But there is no question of set back to the Party. He is going to work for the party.
You are a party hopper. In the last by-elections though you won, the going was tou
RE:K'taka Congress: Revolt over tickets continues
by Shri Kant on Apr 22, 2008 07:24 AM Permalink
The BJP will emerge as the single largest party, not the faction-ridden, leader-less, rudder-less Congress party.
RE:RE:K'taka Congress: Revolt over tickets continues
by Shri Kant on Apr 22, 2008 07:25 AM Permalink
And, by the way, the Congress party will very wel speel its doom -- like in UP and Gujarat -- by inviting Sonia and Rahul!
After backward classes leader Siddaramaiah, it seems to be former chief minister S M Krishnas turn to get upset over his demands not being met in Congress selections for the Karnataka assembly seats even as angry reactions against the first list of names has shocked the party high command.
According to Congress sources, the former Maharashtra governor, who quit the gubernatorial office to rejoin politics, was said to have left the capital in a huff as some of his supporters he has proposed as candidates, have not been accommodated.
Although the name for Chickpet seat, from where his supporter R V Devaraj wants to contest, has not been announced, it is understood that former Bangalore mayor P R Ramesh has been favoured for it.
Besides, another Krishna supporter, Muddahanume Gowda, who was demanding ticket for Kunigal seat, has been ignored. These two issues are said to have upset the veteran leader.
Some of the candidates he proposed for his home district of Mandya were also said to have been denied nomination. Krishna himself is not contesting but then the party perhaps wants him to be free for campaigning. Krishna was disappointed earlier itself as he was not accommo-dated in the two senior-level committees: Central screening committee and Central election committee which decide the party candidates.
Yediruppa propaganda suggests that he received the blessing from a senior Lingayat pontiff and now assured of CMs chair. What he didn't disclose that he was CM for 10days, he spent his time visiting temples and getting blessings, including this particular pontiff. Still he came a cropper.
We need a CM who is a CEO like SM Krishna. Not one spending time visiting temples and seeking blessings which does not materialize
If Yediruppa wants to spend his time visiting temples he should be a sadhu in Himalayas and not eye the CM chair, which in any case would elude him
