We need to look at the whole deal, not just the parts that we dont like. A deal, by definition, is where both parties do a compromise. Lets say we are targeting at 15% energy contribution in say 2020, by the nuclear route. Our energy requirements are also likely to atleast double in the next 15 yrs. This means we need to increase our nuclear energy production by atleast 10 times from the present level. For this, we cannot rely on a speculative technology like the three stage fast breeder reactors which use thorium. Although if this technology comes up, it is great. Also, one needs to check how many nuclear bombs we need. I think despite whatever checks US puts, we should still be able to make a reasonable amount of fissile material every year. And probably no one here is arguing for a 1000 bomb strong nuclear arsenal, isnt it? Another point is that while it is necessary to get the law passed in US, once sanctions are lifted, we will not be restricted to buy material from US. So there is no reason we'd need to follow their policy on Iran. India is already a de-facto nuclear power. Though this pact doesnt make it a de-jure nuclear power, it does place it closer to that status
RE:Look at the deal as a whole (N-deal: The road ahead for India)
by Satish on Dec 23, 2006 09:52 AM Permalink
1000 nuclear bombs + arsenal and enough fissile material and tritium production for maintenance and timely replacement is what INDIA will be going for
This size arsenal is necessary for handeling china, pakistan and a larger power (your guess) in future
Our ultimate aim will be ICBM class SLBM missile with multiple MIRV's (300 kilo ton each) hydrogen bombs.
India will take atleast 20-25 more years to reach this stage US knows this very well so its trying to mould us according to their needs.
I predict that prithivi will be converted to high altitude air defence missile (It will not be a strategic missile in future).
750-800 km Agni will be our future short range mssile. (remaining varients of agni, Agni 2 and Agni 2 AT will be retired and will not form part of detterant in future)
First stage of agni 3 will form a 2500-3500 km range missile in future.
My guess is Agni 3 as declared is not 3500 km range missile. It is 5000-6000 km range missile.
Another varient of Agni 3 or a new missile with 8000 km range may appear in future (Probably Agni 3 with 3rd stage added to it).
looking for comments from ISRO or DRDO guys on my speculation.
The Author put concerns of one side, mostly negative aspects. India's Planned Nuclear Power before Pokhran I was 16,430 MWe by the year 2000. soon after Pokhran-I we reduced it to 10,000 MWe by the year 2000. What did we achieve? Hardly 2000 MWe. So it is clear that with our indigeneous efforts we will be nowhere. The two Nuclear Power Plants which are comong up in Kudankulam are from Russia including fuel. The costs are already worked out and unit electricity cost is less than thermal power stations. So please do the home work before raising an issue.
RE:The other side
by Satish on Dec 23, 2006 09:18 AM Permalink
Imagine what we can do with fraction of 150 BILLION USD that we are going to spend buying reactors.
RE:The other side
by Satish on Dec 23, 2006 09:16 AM Permalink
You pathetic looser. Its not just the electricity.
The amount of money that we spend on buying the reactors and fuel (with no gurantees) is around 150 BILLION US DOLLERS in 15 to 20 years. Now compare what can be done with that kind of money spent on alternative sources of energy. Say reduce/completely remove any duties/cess/taxes on foto voltaic cells for energy generation, giving subsidies for private industries for generating energy by establishing wind mill farms, investing in clean coal technologies, exploring gas reserves in Krishna-Godaveri basin and so on...apart form effeciently mining uranium. The shortage of uranium in india is only temperory arbiteration only (india has 78,000 metric tons of proven minable uranium).
Is it worth to sacrifice your nuclear secrets, research data on thorium, mortgaging foreign policy and constantly living under the threat of sanctions.
Looser get a life first. Before arguing about amount of electricity generated by indeginious program compare the amount of money spent for with the whole program with any other nuclear program including R&D you can easily conclude what we have a great deal on our own a at bargain price.
Rajiv Sikri, IFS, has not given any clear picture. He is as inconclusive as any politician. The IFS Officers have generally done suboptimal jobs in foreign policy matters since independence. That is why, India's prestige has been quite low in the international arena. In important matters like the Nuclear Deal, utmost transparency is needed. In spite of my 30 years of experience as a Space Scientist, I am unable to get a clear picture, despite innumerable articles on the subject. I don't agree with the thorium route, because, it may take several years to mature. My question is simply this: Can India conduct further nuclear tests or not? If we can not test nuclear devices anymore a la the so called big powers, this "Deal" should be abandoned in toto. We have alternative sources of energy like biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen, hydro-electric, etc. Having neighbours like China and Pakistan, we can not ignore our strategic interests, for the cause of energy, which also, can not be solved fully through nuclear route. It is a no-win situation. So, again I repeat, provide the full details, without hiding any Clause, even if they are "advisory" as suggested by President Bush. Dr. K.Natarajan.
Is this revenge by Manmohan for what India did Sikhs aftermath Rajiv killing? R Sonia huddled with West to put pressure on Manmohan to bend his face. Congress never worked for the people right from Jawaharlal Nehru. Lalbahadur Sastri is an exception.
RE:Boy, am I glad this Sikri got superseded!
by Shabeer on Dec 25, 2006 08:24 PM Permalink
Hi Mahes Interesting & happy to read your true patriotism, but getting emotional is one thing which all of us should stop. There is no gains in getting emotional.
Yes, we have(had) the best brains, but not the best technology NOW. The reason i stress on NOW is because we are in a very competitive world. If we are not able to meet our requirements, we need to have such understandings for our advantage.
By doing so, we are not stopping our scientific research, we can still parallely work on our Thorium enrichment program. The day we feel we are able to make more energy from our resources, that day automatically we stand on our own legs and that day this deal is becomes useless, which is what we want.
Our IT industry has grown so much is b'cos we were indirectly partners with US or partners with all US companies, even today if US market crashes, our IT industry would be hit by more than 70%, are those IT engineers traitors? are u ashamed of this ?
Without this Nuclear deal, we would definitely survive & grow, no doubt on that But would we be able to grown in such a way that we would become developed nation to get rid of poverty, No We need to use this deal in smart way.
Hi Shabbir, It is evident from your message that u are either ignorant about indian nuclear program or a traitor. First indian nuclear program: 1. we had achieved complete miniaturisation of warhead design and just 5 explosions were enough to validate our model. America and russia had to do around 1000's of such explosion and pakistan's (made in china) nukes had one dud. 2. We can solve our energy problem only if we extensively use thorium (for which we have largest resrves in the world). But the technology is almost complete and shall take further time of few years for large scale use. It is already being used to run 3 prototype reactors. We must not depend upon america for our energy supplies else they shall start arm twisting us for their gains (exactly what they did to us in 1965 by stopping wheat. Lal bahadur shashtri had to ask nation to fast on monday). 3. America is no ones friend. Who needs enemies if one has friends like america: look at terroristan next door. 4. American interests (unipolarity) do not match with those of indian (multipolarity). 5. We are a nation with advanced technology so why should we be a junior partner. vandemateram(which u are ashamed to say)
RE:Yes we are better in this case
by Shabeer on Dec 26, 2006 02:28 PM Permalink
Hi Mahes Interesting & happy to read your true patriotism, but getting emotional is one thing which all of us should stop. There is no gains in getting emotional.
Yes, we have(had) the best brains, but not the best technology NOW. The reason i stress on NOW is because we are in a very competitive world. If we are not able to meet our requirements, we need to have such understandings for our advantage.
By doing so, we are not stopping our scientific research, we can still parallely work on our Thorium enrichment program. The day we feel we are able to make more energy from our resources, that day automatically we stand on our own legs and that day this deal is becomes useless, which is what we want.
Our IT industry has grown so much is b'cos we were indirectly partners with US or partners with all US companies, even today if US market crashes, our IT industry would be hit by more than 70%, are those IT engineers traitors? are u ashamed of this ?
Without this Nuclear deal, we would definitely survive & grow, no doubt on that But would we be able to grown in such a way that we would become developed nation to get rid of poverty, No We need to use this deal in smart way.
Top class article. So lucidly the author brings out the disturbing aspects on what is buying drummed up as a very beneficial thing by the powers that be! It is really something the Govt should have discussed thoroughly in the Parliament, and a national concensus should have been arrived at, and then a few clear indicators must have been given to U.S. Now we have placed the cart before the horse! As the author opines, there is going to be some embarassment if what comes up in the final form is not something entirely palatable to us. And after all this goodwill 'hawa' that is blowing about between U.S. and us, only can only hope that we are not going to have any embarassments, or repercussions, if and when we need to 'disengage' from some of the unfavourable consequences of the deal. It is difficult to fathom why we were in so much of a hurry to rush the proposal without allowing for the national thoughts to converge on what is really beneficial to India. And, as the author says, U.S. does not seem to have it all that straight. It looks like we are being 'aligned' to their concepts. But more than the nuclear energy, I would rather we remained a free country to decide what we need.
Totem pole logic marshalled by opponents of the Indo-US N-deal does not address whether CHINA would benefit if the Indo-US N-deal gets grounded. A Nation that seeks to lead must personalise its deficiencies, convert them into goals and take steps to achieve those goals.The Prime Minister is doing just that to coalesce and converge Indo-US interests, whilst simultaneously talking to the Chinese to stimulate better relations in the region.
