The article is interesting; but the author has made some sweeping assumptions without proper analysis of the geopolical realities of the region. For instance how can he be so sure that America will not act militarly. Agreed that they are having problems in Iraq; But how many American Troops are in Iraq after all?. It is nothing compared to the Total Troops at the disposal of USA. Again don't be so sure that Israel cannot do any military actions against Iran. Because in Israel's view point Iran is the ultimate threat to their existance. They have declared that they will act the moment they feel that Iran is about to cross the nuclear threshold. And remember that the jewish state is capable of inventing some imaginative ways to achieve their military goals. Again contarary to the author's comments, I feel that the Arab states are more scared of Iran becoming a nuclear country than the threat posed by USA/Israel. Because Iran has territorial claims over several countries in the region like UAE, Baharain and Saudi Arabia.Also there is the question of the larger Sunni-Shia conflict. So I think there is a more possibility of military conflict in the region in the future.
The article is extremely logical. Any of the above options can only lead to instability in our neighbourhood. Unless we find a means of securing our energy supplies either through Russia, or S.E. Asia. Pakistan's land border with Iran is probably the reason why Musharraf has come for fresh praise from the US. With Pakistan's growing closeness with Israel, a covert or overt linkup between them in conjunct with the US cannot be ruled out against Iran. China and Russia will hold the key. But their veto cannot be taken for granted. They will wait and watch to see how much the US can handle on its own and then move on to consolidate their entrenched interests in Iran. India must move in sync with one of these principal players to avoid being a fringe player. If we cannot participate in this territorial hydrocarbon sweepstakes than we better develop some other non renewable resources like bio-diesel, nuke energy, ethanol and even hydrogen, while still exploring for oil and gas domestically. That way tomorrow's cars and factories will not be terrified at the prospect of a non-existent 'strategic reserves'.
