Any body who is still optimistic that the subprime pain is going to diminish quickly is surely living in a fairy land. For a country that thrives on plastic money, hiding the recession reality is no big deal. No amount of FED rate cuts can salvage US economy out of recession. The fact that ICICI and HDFC are having subprime exposure in tunes of 85 billions rupees under the carpet implies that US has already entered into recession. The magnitude of the crisis is such that it is going to wipe out some of the banks and major financial institutions. Dont get lured by sudden spikes in indexes to enter again. Either book losses or profits, but it is time to exit from markets with whatever you are left in your portfolio immediately. Indian markets will go tailspinning to see the abyssmal depths of 7K to 8K by the end of this year. This catastrophe of 2008 will go down into history as the year of great economic holocaust. Peace and senses will prevail in 2009. Mark my words.
RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by sunny gujarathi on Mar 17, 2008 07:36 PM Permalink
No chance.. This is just a bad time for market,by diwali we can see the market up to 19k level.Till the time enjoy the ranges 16K-14K-12K Stick to basics,create a portfolio-try to buy low sell high..avg out the losses.. WHO DARES WINS!
RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by Ajay on Mar 17, 2008 07:59 PM Permalink
what basics are you talking about? Companies with valuation of tens of billions of dollars don't have revenues in millions prime example Reliance power? Reliance industries Indian Jewel does not even sell it's product in India, so when americans buy lesser oil or come up with new stable electric car - can be 2010 Chevy Volt, or even make new refinaries in US RIL is in trouble beacuse it will loose money for every litre of pertol it sells in India.
Indian market is not based on any basics but on sentiments. They are good as long as it lasts, rest is anybody's guess.
RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by Optimist Indian on Mar 17, 2008 08:17 PM Permalink
your thinking is baseless...
The electric cars need charging and for that you need electricicy which is from coal/fuel,nuclear and its not free....Also one can not move in US without car so petrol/gas will be always required in US...
RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by Ajay on Mar 17, 2008 09:27 PM Permalink
RIL makes money by selling gasoline and other petrolium derivatives in North America. Now if North American demand for galosine decreases where will RIL sell it's product.
No one is suggesting gasoline will not bre required come 2010, however there would be a move away from it. Correct electric enrgy will be required and renewable and Nuclear have lead on this. Hardly any electricity is produced by Gasoline, Coal yes Gasoline No.
The issue being discussed was share valution and whether they are based on sentiment or financial prudence. So in case or RIL if there is no market to sell gasoline in there is no reason for it to be worth 15% of indian equity market.
RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by NARENDR K BHANDARI on Mar 17, 2008 07:03 PM Permalink
your estimate is just based on emotion.the financial growth rate of india will change whole picture and in amonth you will see that stocks are back at feb08 level.
RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by on Mar 17, 2008 07:49 PM Permalink
narendra ji they are correct u better watch for 6800 index and it is for sure
RE:RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by on Mar 17, 2008 07:51 PM Permalink
bhandari ji they r correct we believe that it will shortly touch 6800 levels
RE:RE:SENSEX WILL SEE 8000 by end of 2008
by Sameer on Mar 17, 2008 06:20 PM Permalink
5000 is my guess. world economy is 50 trillion and derivatives are close to 600 trillion dollars.
Most of the economic expansion in the last decade has been created by credit and it is GONE.
Would invest in market again when down to 5,000.
Just to give you an idea..Japan's Nikkie was 40, 000 in 1986 and after 20 years it is 12, 000.
PLEASE ADVISE WHEATHER WE SHOHLD WITHDRAW FROM STOCK MARKET . WHAT SEBI , NSDL , MAKET SPECIALIST .FINANCE EXPERT OF MINISTRY ARE DOING. THEY SHOULD NOT REMAIMN SILENT EXPECTATOR. IT HAS EFFECT ON INDIAN ECONOMY
RE:market pundits
by mpls on Mar 17, 2008 08:30 PM Permalink
If your investment is for long term (about 10yrs) then you need not to be panic.But sure market will take 2-3 yrs to bounce back.Understand banks can't run for losses for more than 5 yrs.then everybody will lose jobs and commodity prices will be high.Still Choice is yours.
That theory is baseless.... This crash is just created by the giants who play the gambling game in the market. they invested money in the form of foreign funds to trigger the market from 15000 to 17000. seing this quick growth, the poor ambitious indians invested largely to take it to 20K. Then the gamblers quikly pulled back with huge profit... the ultimate loosers are the poor indians,,, this is basic stock market principles....
RE:IT is
by Muzammil Ahmed! on Mar 17, 2008 06:16 PM Permalink
that pretty much sums up the stock market game. staying invested and reaping the dividends is a good way of investment.
Not few weeks ago, same FM was talking about India's growth story is different and real. Now we know that stock market was being massaged by shady FIIs ( like Lehman, Bear stearn) who have borrowed from Indian banks with those worth less CDOs. This puts entire Indian banking system at risk of going under..or Indian rupee becoming like Zimbabwe currency.
Stock Market is the biggest Casino of the world, who ever got pulled into this maya will have to pay back like the Kavuravas. Money earned in shortcut will go as they came. Hard Earned money and qualities will always stay.
I wish the Indian stock market to crash below 8000 points (more realistic value).
Because of the falsified growth the price of all the basic commodities has gone up. The Real Estate has become a luxury in India. Only the politcal and business goons having tonnes of black money can afford to own a piece of land. This is all due to the money revolving in the Casino (Stock Market). This should crash. The Truth will Triupmh. Let us sit back and think what our forefathers has said to us. TRUTH WILL TRUIMPH. SATHYA MEVA JEYATHE.
The Govt.needs to ban this nonsensical live coverage or at least have the channels refrain from any predictions through silly interviews who are forever goading the interviewee to forecast. Balderdash if he knew he wouldn't be giving interviews..he would be buying and selling!
Hey guys, One more reason to think about. The congress for four years has ruled the country.Its leaders made thousands of crores through shady deals, irrigation projects which never get completed. the money looted from public in the form of all these scams they have invested into the stock market. Once they have realized that they woudl no more come back to power either at center or in vital states like Andhra Pradesh they have started removing money from the market. This is affecting the market which is falling like nine pins.
RE:It seems.....
by vikram on Mar 17, 2008 06:05 PM Permalink
Sensible and possible. Even otherwise, theres no doubt at all that there are some domestic powers playing havoc and not any global cues or world markets as are being made out to be. Just like they blame for every arson, on neighbouring people !
Following the stellar rally of 2007 , the Indian markets have entered bubble zone and the best case scenario is indicative of a 10-12% % upside from current market levels for the year which will see an above fair value level of approx 21622/ 22800 for the BSE At that level consensus earnings will be approximately 27 times anticipated FY 2008/9 EPS of Rs 850 for India Inc. The upside is with the caveat that that the US undergoes a soft landing , the falling dollar receives aggressive Fed stimulus, emerging markets continue to assert themselves and India%u2019s growth and relative valuations remain in good shape.
The bear case indicates a 25 % downside from current levels over the next 12 months with first support at 14,864 and that becomes reality if the US recession is deep, and is combined with significant policy changes at home and a hostile political environment. Extrapolating the fair value estimate of 17 times anticipated FY2008/9 EPS , the fair value of the Sensex works out to approximately 14450 / 14,864 which is also the inflection point from where Elliots 5th wave extension for 2007 began.
Should the US recession deepen significantly and /or a major financial crisis occur in global markets causing deep risk aversion , we see a worse case 45% downside from current lev
RE:RE:From theindianstocks com
by Blah Blah on Mar 17, 2008 05:58 PM Permalink
This article was put on theindianstocks com on 5th Jan
echnical View %u2013 2008
Of fat tails and extreme value theories%u2026.
CMP BSE 20300
BEST CASE 22800 FAIR VALUE 14864 BEAR CASE 11200
Following the stellar rally of 2007 , the Indian markets have entered bubble zone and the best case scenario is indicative of a 10-12% % upside from current market levels for the year which will see an above fair value level of approx 21622/ 22800 for the BSE At that level consensus earnings will be approximately 27 times anticipated FY 2008/9 EPS of Rs 850 for India Inc. The upside is with the caveat that that the US undergoes a soft landing , the falling dollar receives aggressive Fed stimulus, emerging markets continue to assert themselves and India%u2019s growth and relative valuations remain in good shape.
The bear case indicates a 25 % downside from current levels over the next 12 months with first support at 14,864 and that becomes reality if the US recession is deep, and is combined with significant policy changes at home and a hostile political environment. Extrapolating the fair value estimate of 17 times anticipated FY2008/9 EPS , the fair value of the Sensex works out to approximately 14450 / 14,864 which is also the inflection point from where Elliots 5th wave extension for 2007 began.
Should the US recession deepen significantly and /or a major financial crisis occur in global markets causing
RE:From theindianstocks com
by Blah Blah on Mar 17, 2008 06:00 PM Permalink
The following extract is from the theindianstocks com posted on 5th jan
Should the US recession deepen significantly and /or a major financial crisis occur in global markets causing deep risk aversion , we see a worse case 45% downside from current levels to 11,022 .
While India Incs fundamentals remain very strong, we believe that external forces will make the extreme value theory continue to create a fat tail zone for equities in 2008.
The share bazaar is the worst example of how to make money. Nobody barring the very big fish make money. Brokers who represent them too make a lot of money. The 'stocks'news chaneels make a ton of money harping on'technicals' from novices who don't the difference between their hip and their elbow. The real estate market is in for a free fall like in the early nineties and our elected reps know this for sure but will not do anything much because they know that we are a poor gullible populace chasing that ever elusive dream and are juicy sitting ducks for scamsters. Oh dear God when will this carnage stop and when will the guilty pay ??
