Goldman Sachs recently predicted that India would overtake the US to become the second-largest economy in the world after China by 2042 in a report that sharply lifted the investment banks forecast of the countrys long-term growth rate.
Adil Zainulbhai, head of McKinsey in India, said the surge in incomes would depend on the government undertaking a reform programme to reduce the fiscal deficit, promote competition and invest in infrastructure, healthcare and education.
The size of the addressable market for businesses will surge as internal migration lifts the urban population from 318m to 523m and reduces the proportion living in harder-to-reach rural areas from 71 to 63 per cent.
Indias middle class, defined as those earning between $4,400 and $22,000, will rise from 50m people, or 5 per cent of the population, to 583m people, or 41 per cent by 2025, more than tenfold
The number of Indians living in deprivation, defined as those with incomes of less than $5.40 a day, has already fallen from 93 per cent of the population in 1985 to 54 per cent today and will decrease to 22 per cent by 2025.
The number of global Indians with incomes of over $22,000 will rise tenfold to 24m, their average incomes climbing from $35,000 in 2005 to $50,000 in 2025.
3)The problem lies in quoting prices in US dollar (since rupee was on downslide against US dollar for the last 50 years, continuously). All Indian exporters wanted to make extra-ordinary profits from rupee downslide.
4) On Purchasing power parity basis, rupee is still under valued by 60% compared to US currency. That means, it is still cheaper to buy Indian goods for most of the world.
Bottomline:
Exporters need to export more to Non- US market, OR quote prices in currency other than US $. Either would take care of US $ downslide risk, which has not ended yet.
US dollar has gone down against all major currencies because of US budget deficit and trade deficit. US had been covering the deficit through foreign capital investments. Presently, there is increasing strong confidence in Euro currency for CAPITAL INVESTMENTS (since George Bush is seen as a moron everywhere in the world, Capital investments in USA are a mute point in World Intelligent community). Rupee has not appreciated (on the other hand, Dollar has sunk) against Euro, pound, yen, australian and Canadian dollar.
What does that mean:
1)That would prompt inflation and interest rates to go higher in USA . That means prices everywhere that are being quoted in US dollar would have to adjusted (ie. raised); very very soon.
2)Immediately, Prices can be negotiated for exports to everywhere except USA , without any problem. Exports to USA can be negotiated too, since USA importers know better how bad the currency crisis is (unless the goods are coming from China , wherein, industry such as Leather industry would definitely suffer since China 's currency is pegged to US currency at 7.75 Yuan). Then again, China would have to pay for this STUNT since Chinese govt owns 400 Billions in US $ debt that means, Chinese Govt would be hurt very badly, very very soon. So don't worry, WHAT YOU SOW, THOU SHALL REAP, applies to China .
RE:Lowering US Dollar impact on Indian imports & exports Part 1/2
by Girish Kakar on Jul 26, 2007 04:21 PM Permalink
well m sorry to say but the fed has denied any possiblilities of raising the int. rates in the near future.....as they see the economay hav come out of the inflation panic which existed 3 months ago.....so rising int rates in the us is quite difficult.....try n related crude with demand for dol,u might find some good reason for rising dol value.....coz crude is going to fall again after situation in normal in iran....n capital investments in the US is on a high in their own country.....dow touching life time high....n they r investing in india too....c it has touched alomost 10 billion in indian stock markets this year....this is just a small example m giving....u may check inflows to india for that matter....
RE:INDIA
by Confused on Jul 30, 2007 01:56 AM Permalink
Dear Srinu reddy, what you said is correct. It is not the psessimism but pure logic. The character of the indians are reflected in the fact that: 50 britishers had ruled 30 million indians. then this nehru-gandhi family is now ruling the country, putting the servents like manmohan and pratibha as PM and prez post. why in this big country and vast population is there no other leaders? Indians are born to remail slave.. first of kings then britishers and now the gandhi-nehru family... even god cannot help this country.
RE:INDIA
by vijay baskar on Jul 26, 2007 11:22 AM Permalink
well said !!! But i will tell you what ruthless comments you will get from your fellow indians who can never understand this truth or accept this...
" Get out of the nation u moron " " Why cant you do something for this nation " and some abusive words...
What else they know ? in a useless nation like this ?
RE:INDIA
by pradeep vivek on Jul 26, 2007 03:42 PM Permalink
well said,there are many like sreenu who are afraid of the dollar falling flat further,anyway know the truth man,the US economy is in shambles and thats the truth!!
RE:INDIA
by pradeep vivek on Jul 26, 2007 03:46 PM Permalink
EXACTLY! WITH PESSIMISTS LIKE YOU WHO'S ONLY DESIRE IS TO GO TO THE UNITED STATES AND WORK LIKE DONKEYS!
RE:INDIA
by Puratchimani Rajavelu on Jul 26, 2007 11:53 AM Permalink
How India will develop if we had Citizen like u???????? India is developing!!!!! Dear Nonsense shut ur mouth!!!! If india had not developed u woul not be posting messages like this sitting infront of a computer rather you will be carrying the shits of whitemen!!
Dont forget our fellow men had to carry the shits of whitemen!!!!! Leave those things......
Come on guys we can build a developed new india!!! dont lose hope!!! Just ask a simple question yourself!!! Have not India Improved???????? surely u will get an answer..India is Improved or Improving. India is improving no doubt...but the rate at which we are growing should be our worry...mind it you (we) can accelerate the growth of India..... come on guys never give up... Our ancestors sacrificed their life to get freedom for us.....I am not asking you to sacrifice your life rather be positive take part in India' growth by doing ur duty sincerely...... Iam not asking this for me ....for your children ....for your grand children sake
I you are aware of dirtiness of India you must be knowing the answers too right...
So Pls implement ur answers.....bring the change....... Let's build new India for (y)our next generation!!!!!!!
RE:RE:INDIA
by srinu reddy on Jul 26, 2007 08:39 PM Permalink
chill out dude.. ask a farmer residing in remote village about "india developed".my father is farmer ,we used to make more money in 1990s than now.for your kind information still 80% people are dependent on agriculture.why the hell a farmer needs to think about re appriciation,when he is not getting food to live.what are you thinking only some jobs can make india like USA.look at the most peaceful countries (sweden,denmark,finland)in the world.these countries are dependent on agriculture.
Note My Point:if 80% people are suffering no nation can be developed.Agriculture only can make india and indians happy.if need more info try to find about indian economy between (1950-1980).we were in a better situation than now.
I have been writing some messages in this forum against india. I have been receiving abusie comments as reply.. ofcourse what else does our fellow indians know apart frm abusing others ?
I have written INDIA when expanded gives It Never Develops In Anything.. I have written how bad is the hygine,cleaniness,discipline in india...apart from a few who abused me...the default comments like " why cant u get in and clean " " what did you do for the nation "etc were also thr from my indians..
Here is something about me :
I live in bangalore, i am (was) a die hard patriot ..I love India right from cricket to normal culture... Me and my friends in our street wanted to do something for the society rather than cribbing for this nation... We collected 100 rs from each house in the name of completely cleaning our street and making it tidy... we totally collected Rs 6000 /- . I and my frds contributed 2000 from our pocket each... and made it 17000 rs...
We wanted to appoint 10 ppl to completely clean the roads garbage everything in our street ..we 30 from the street also joined them... In 3 days we made it happen..Althou we could not make US or UK out of it.. we made it beautiful.
We enforced some rules on throwing waste etc..everything went smooth for 2 days... then slowly the street started getting shabby...We called up for a meeting and people started blaming each other for throwing garbage in streets...it led to a quarrel...
Finally the conclusion of this meeting was " These gu
RE:India !!! Can never come up !!!!
by Puratchimani Rajavelu on Jul 26, 2007 10:34 AM Permalink
hello baskar, do u know the meaning for "Persistence","perseverance"? without this we cannot bring change in our society. Well i appreciate ur intention and what u did. Never give up!!! You can do anything!!! dont underestimate our people, they will take some time to understand, once they understand they will start supporting you.... So dont give up dont insult India & Indians.. Be part of making India a super power!!!!!
Rupee rise is good for Indian economy and larger population of India!!!! The fall of dollar against Rupee is the welcome sign for India's supermacy in the world economy. This writer botheres about only 10% of the population and 10% of the indian industries.The author should think broadly before writing article like this. Only a strong rupee will make india a super power.
RE:Rupee rise is good for Indian economy and larger population of India!!!!!
by Girish Kakar on Jul 26, 2007 04:33 PM Permalink
u know this is such a funny comment from ya..."This writer botheres about only 10% of the population and 10% of the indian industries"....in reply to this i will say that u r bothered about urself not ur children or ur grand children....rising rupee can be good but only if its gradual.....n by rising rupee u can only buy US products cheaply but u will fail to sell ur products to them.....n remember one thing,US is the largestttttt importer in the world.....can u imagine how big the US market is???....n if india fails to capture that,whats the loss india gonna bear???....dont think about urself,think for the country.....
RE:RE:RE:India!! when expanded
by pravin devidas wankhade on Jul 26, 2007 12:31 PM Permalink
and My friend, Vijay means Victory with consistent efferts and supreme performances.... u hv both of them only need Patience.
This way Government Can Create Government Jobs for Millions of people. If policies are made properly and honestly and we are not elected to see our own pockets I can assure you that we can make our country much more beautiful Our Doctors, engineers, and other professional people move abroad to work, this is not only for money but also to have peaceful life and away from Government working policies.
We spend lot of money on construction of Road but never the roads are constructed sincerely and honestly as we have to get it constructed every year. As per my past experience I have Seen and read only India is a growing country where Lot of money is spend on construction of roads every where and even then they are not upto the standard. In Oman roads are construction 20 years back and still it is the best among the Indian Roads. In China the roads are so good and they work honestly so they need not to spend the money for roads every year.
We in government jobs do like this.
We get a designation, position to work on certain post. And some one approaches us to get the work done for which government has appointed us; we expect money in return from that man for his work. This means we are getting double salary: one from government and another from that man for. . We are paid for that work and it is our duty to do that work.
