I completely agree with Abheek Barua. In short to medium term Indian markets will be highly volatile due to its over dependence on exports to West and especially on American economy and this is true of any emerging markets. However in the long term, India will stand on its own and defang itself from West and will grow on its own.
As of now, i would completely get out of IT stocks and and will not re-neter them untill i see visible changes in their business model or start looking for projects in Europe and Asia.
The stock market is way over bought and is at its peak and is way expensive. However there are still many oppurtunites where people can still invest and make money.
If US officially gets into recession mode, the growth expectations will be hugely reduced and stocks decline and thats where i see an oppurtunity to enter.
RE:Perfect analysis on Indian economy
by ramdev jhawar on Jan 02, 2008 11:20 AM Permalink
Well, the value of US dollar will definately go to 35 this year. The gold prices will go up and real estate will keep its boom in india irrespective of the economy because of lot of liquidy. The china factor will definately an element to watch. The oil prices going on top and gulf nations earning lot of money since 2 years now will give away funds to likes of alquida and likes for terror attacks.
no one can predict the future.this is purely idiotic to predict.local factors are more important.money keeps pouring in Indian market.base of Indian markets are increasing day by day...dependence on FII is decreasing even though slowly...depth and maturity is also increasing of the Indian bourses.Let us start thinking positive...India is a great growth story..Indian economy is bound to rise..People mind set has become aggressive..We are still cheaper in terms of valuations..Corporates have aggressive plans for expansion and growth ...demand in all segments is byuoant ..why worry dudes..
I agreewith most of what Abheek Barua has written. They are based on pragmtic logic. World economy in general and US economy in p-articular will have a slow down in growth. Rupee appreciation will affect our exports adversely. We do not have stable governments at Delhi, Bangalore and other states. There is no integrity amomg 98 percent of the politicians of all political parties who are greedy for power and money and ard corrupt to the core. There is no political will and cohesion in all ythe coalition governments. Naxalite problems ana crimes are on the increase in alll major cities, specially in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore. Chidambaram is cheating the people in the form of oil bonds and other bonds to sustain billions of ruppes subsidies. Fuel and Food prices are sky high affeting the poor and middleclass people. Both Social amd physical infrastrucure are crumbling. Enough of this story. Hope God will be kind to India during 2008!
RE:Forecats for Indian Economy in 2008.
by AJITH BHATT on Jan 01, 2008 07:19 PM Permalink
Chidambaram thinks that he is a super finance minister,but in reality he is an expert in taxing each and every aspect of petty things like ATM money withdrawal,DD Commission,Service Tax of Bank Charges,afterall there is a history of stock-market crashes, and the econonmy crashes associated with Chidambaram when he was the FM of Deve Gowda,so be prepared for a bitter 2008-09,May god bless India
This article is way too generic. Nothing great and worth 'wasting' time reading the article. Articles should be more quantitative with numbers! Happy New Year and may the world prosper.
RE:Way too Generic
by Serpicus on Dec 31, 2007 10:03 AM Permalink
agreed. reads like an economics text book. except less data to support the claims and more opinion. That too nothing that we have not already heard in some form or another from actual market gurus, in more detailed reports. Guess Rediff's policy of getting tom, Dick, and Harry has left its articles bereft of an respectable content. All we now see are articles by RSS loyalists (since no reputable site would actually publish their drabble), free-lance reports who practice for when actually do get a writing job, and a few "guest" contributors who copy from their year-end company pamphlets as acts of charity for a once popular website, that has since fallen into becoming a propaganda machine for right wing idealogues.
RE:Way too Generic
by AJITH BHATT on Jan 01, 2008 07:21 PM Permalink
why drag RSS into this,in this country some nut guys drag enjoy dragging RSS into each every thing,so far nobody has associated RSS with Tsunami thank god for Small mercies
RE:RE:Way too Generic
by Shak IsHere on Jan 02, 2008 02:05 PM Permalink
FYI Ajith ,Serpicus actully was talking about the content distribution technique, RSS which stands for -Really Simple Syndication. Google out for more info
This economist is holding his (bank's) cards close to his chest and dishing out only generic stuff. It looks more like a cut&paste job from the Economist, WSJ and other such publications.
